Islamic Jihad terrorist Baha Abu al-Ata was not meant to be long for this world. Al-Ata has been a major thorn in Israel's side for a very long time and as such he was on the IDF's most-wanted list.
Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Shin Bet security agency Director Nadav Argaman had both urged his elimination last year, but those plans had to be shelved over the more pressing issue of the Iranian threat in the northern sector. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi also supported the notion that al-Ata had to be eliminated before his nefarious actions triggered a regional conflagration.
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The notoriety al-Ata received in Israel and the Gaza Strip went to his head very quickly. He went rogue, pursuing independent, aggressive offensives, more often than not without any cause or provocation. Hamas, Qatar, and the regional EU and UN envoys all tried to talks some sense into him, but to no avail.
Moreover, he saw these efforts as a sign of weakness, just as he saw Israel's policy of restraint where he was concerned as tacit consent that he could go about his belligerent business.
Trying to deal with this archterrorist while preventing an escalation, Israel opted for deterrence first. Third-party mediators relayed messages to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and al-Ata himself, all saying he was literally playing with fire and Israel's patience was wearing thin.
But al-Ata, in his hubris, decided to ignore the warnings.
As expected, his elimination triggered a hysterical backlash from Islamic Jihad, which fired over 200 rockets at central and southern Israel.
The IDF saw this coming and as soon as the plan to target al-Ata was approved it bolstered the deployment of Iron Dome batteries in key areas. This has mitigated much of Islamic Jihad's unbridled response, as the trusty defense system intercepted over half of the projectiles aimed at residential areas. According to the IDF, much of the remainder hit open areas, causing little-to-no damage.
Israel's response to the barrage has been measured, both making the point that it will not tolerate rocket fire on civilians and avoiding deteriorating the situation further vis-à-vis Hamas.
So far, Gaza's rulers have refrained from joining the fray – and not only because no one there is lamenting al-Ata's "loss": Hamas is heavily invested in the Egyptian-mediated ceasefire talks and its efforts to resolve the dire economic crisis in Gaza. Its leaders know that provoking another war with Israel will spell utter ruin for the Strip – and maybe even topple its rule.
Israel, too, seeks to distinguish Hamas from Islamic Jihad, so as not to paint it into a corner. If Hamas remains on the sidelines and if it manages to rein in jihad activists seeking to avenge al-Ata, then the calm, such as it is, on the Israel-Gaza could be restored. If not, escalation is in the cards.
Israel obviously prefers restoring the calm and its top officials, including Kochavi and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have made it clear it has no interest in escalation, reiterating the familiar mantra of "quiet will be met with quiet."
This is especially important given the tensions in the northern sector. The IDF also attempted to eliminate senior Islamic Jihad official Akram Ajuri in Damascus on Tuesday, and while Islamic Jihad's abilities in Syria are limited, it's Iranian patron could help it exact painful revenge on Israel.
The real value of al-Ata's elimination lies with the deterrence it creates. If Hamas does not join the fighting and Islamic Jihad be rendered damaged over the loss of its leader, then the mission was accomplished – to an extent, of course. This is, after all, Gaza Strip we're talking about.
