Oded Granot

Oded Granot is a senior Middle East and Arab World commentator.

Beirut blast came at worst possible time for Nasrallah

Hezbollah was not quick to blame Israel for the devastating blast in Beirut and it didn't threaten "to make those responsible pay" simply because it has bigger problems to contend with.

Two days ago, Beirut shook like it never shook before. Experienced journalists broadcasting from the site of the tragedy at Beirut's port found it difficult to find words to describe the intensity of the blast that devastated the entire city, the huge fires that erupted from Hangar 12 and the plumes of black and white smoke that covered the whole area, including the bodies of the dead and the injured spread all over the ground. One of the reporters broadcasting from the port said: "I am speaking to you from a disaster zone." Another determined: "This is Hiroshima in Beirut."

Hours after the massive blast, actually two blasts, one smaller and one very large, security officials in Lebanon still couldn't find the cause. One version spoke of a short circuit that ignited a huge storage facility of fireworks and from there the fire spread quickly to other storages that held flammable materials. Another version spoke of a storage facility holding explosives and maybe even missiles of Hezbollah that were hidden in the port.

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As opposed to other past incidents, Hezbollah was not quick in its broadcasts to blame Israel. It didn't hint at sabotage and didn't threaten to "get rid of those responsible" for what happened in the Port of Beirut. Even if someone succeeds in proving that it indeed was a weapons storage belonging to the organization, and there is still no certainty that it is, this could not have come at a worse time for Nasrallah to admit so.

The reason is simple. Deep from his bunker in the Dahiya neighborhood in south Beirut, not far from the port in flames, Nasrallah is busy trying to put out at least three other fires that he is seen as responsible for, and their potential for damage is just as huge as what happened in the port.

One fire is the internal crisis in Lebanon, stemming from the unprecedented financial crisis that has bankrupted the country and brought it to its knees, with sky-high unemployment, a shortage in food and gas, and daily protests. Many in Lebanon blame Hezbollah, a partner in the government, for the situation.

The second fire has to do with a much smaller blast, but many times more lethal, which 15 years ago took out the Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri, at Syria's request and was carried out directly by Hezbollah. In the years since, Nasrallah has managed to get rid of most of those involved in the hit, but the incriminating evidence has not disappeared, and the international tribunal is expected to publish its conclusions Thursday, after much delay. For Nasrallah, whose organization has already been called by many nations a terrorist group, a conviction by the Hague will be a serious matter.

And the third fire threatening Lebanon is linked to the equation Nasrallah has created and which forces him to respond to every Israeli hit on Hezbollah activists, even if it takes place outside of Lebanon. This is not the place to discuss if Israel is correct by not clarifying from the start that this equation is not acceptable, especially if it takes place in Syria, but Nasrallah sees the amassing of forces on the Israeli side of the border and understands that if he makes a mistake, the Israeli response could start another massive fire in Lebanon, that no one in this miserable country will be able to put out, and everyone there will blame him.

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