The developments in Washington have taken the Israeli political system to the edge. After weeks of idle debates pondering issues such as immunity, a strong Right and a weak Left, an opportunity has presented itself in a way that encapsulates the longstanding controversy within the Israeli public and makes the March 2 elections more crucial than ever.
Setting expectations at the maximum, anything less than applying Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley before the elections will come as a great disappointment to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's voters.
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If Netanyahu thought, along with US President Donald Trump, to turn the "deal of the century" into a defining issue that would sway public support in his benefit to him – then the only way to make that happen would be to get the Knesset to pass legislation to that effect in the coming weeks. Any deferral, postponement, or procrastination, or the applying of limited sovereignty may backfire, deflating the expectations Netanyahu himself has created.
But above all, this is a true test for the Blue and White. Party leader Benny Gantz may have accept the plan – and a coveted photo-op with Trump at the White House – but he did not commit to promoting any sovereignty prior to the election.
He cannot make such a commitment without consulting with the party's other three co-founders – Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, Telem head Moshe Ya'alom and MK Gabi Ashkenazi - each of whom may pull him in a completely different direction.
Their dilemma is real: A would-be right-wing party cannot afford to oppose sovereignty, especially over an area like the Jordan Valley, on which there is a consensus. However, the views of some party members, as well the heads of the Labor-Meretz alliance and the Joint Arab List who oppose the plan, and without whom he has no hope of being tasked with forming the next government, could get in his way.
Moreover, for Gantz, supporting the plan may even be more dangerous politically: The Joint Arab List will pull their support of him immediately, thus putting an end to his dream of becoming prime minister, probably for good.
The photo-op at the White House cannot hide Gantz's political inexperience and one must remember that he would not have even been invited there if not for Netanyahu's insistence on sharing the moment with him.
Yamina, the faction comprising the New Right, National Union, and Habayit Hayehudi parties, also has its expectations. With all due respect to sovereignty, the fact that the plan will include a commitment to establish another Arab state practically inside Israel will force the right-wing party to oppose the plan.
But opposition has its limits. There is declarative opposition and there is the kind of opposition that will result in the party exiting the government. By all estimates, Yamina could oppose the plan but still remain in the coalition. After all, Netanyahu will present the sovereignty move to the Knesset vote, but not necessarily everything else included in the plan.
And after all of this, there are some who still prefer to ignore the historic moment upon us and deal with the trivial things. If we are indeed facing a formative moment than we will soon learn that Netanyahu's rivals have reached new heights of obsession, even as reality is changing dramatically right before their eyes.
