The ramifications of the attack on the Russian bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia go beyond the immediate military and logistical damage. It deals a political and reputational blow to the Kremlin.
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The attack's immediate effect will be in the form of a major disruption in the volume of supplies and troops Russia can transport to the peninsula. It is also unclear when the train service will be fully restored. But in sheer political terms, the attack could be a breaking point of sorts in Russia because the structure had long been considered the crown jewel when it comes to the federation's annexation of the disputed territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken great pride in having it completed.
How was the operation carried out? I believe that at least three missiles hit it, perhaps even the anti-ship Harpoon or the indigenously produced Neptune cruise missile.
I find it hard to believe a vehicle-born improvised explosive device was used as the modus operandi, as some have claimed. You cannot access this bridge without rigorous scrutiny of your documents and cargo. The bridge has structural shortcomings: it lacks a stable base and is hence prone to fluctuations. That's why Russia makes sure that the traffic does not reach overload capacity by constant traffic-flow regulation. The bottom line is that if you want to go on the bridge from either side you have to pass what could be described as a de facto high-security border crossing.
Moreover, if this was a truck bombing, there would have been the partial collapse of only one segment, not two as the footage shows. In fact, there was also another explosion on the bridge's railroad track, and it does not appear to be a secondary explosion. There is also dashcam footage in which one could hear that something is approaching the bridge followed by an immediate explosion.
Third, the fact that Russia has been taking pains to avoid any hint of admission that this could have been a successful operation by the Ukrainian military reinforces my assessment. Conceding that would be tantamount to having Putin shoot himself in the foot. After all, he has promised to use all available means to defend this bridge and that even a fly won't be able to pass through. Where was the glorious S-400 interceptor? Why were the other air-defense systems not used? It appears that another Russian myth was dispelled.
Will Russia respond by detonating a nuclear bomb? I ascribe a low probability to this scenario. Putin has long been reluctant of making cardinal decisions. Time and again he tries to pass the buck to some other group of officials. He kicks the can down the road until the situation becomes critical. I don't think that he is ready to reach "heaven or hell" as he once said. That's why I think he is bluffing when he sends nuclear threats. The farthest he is willing to go is to carry out a nuclear test in the Arctic Ocean. That said, the retaliation to the bridge attack could be in the form of a swarm of attack drones or a massive missile salvo. Regardless, none of these options would undo the damage to Russian prestige done by images from the Kerch Strait on Saturday.
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