Exactly six months from now, on Nov. 3, a US presidential election is scheduled to take place between President Donald Trump and the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden. But will it actually take place as planned? For the Israeli public, which is used to dates of Knesset elections being changed, the mere possibility that the celebration of American democracy might be pushed back shouldn't come as a surprise.
However, at least thus far, postponement of a presidential election has never been seriously examined by the American public. This time is different.
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At first glance, the very idea of raising the possibility seems ridiculous. This is because of the US Constitution, which defines a presidential term as four years. In a law passed in 1845, Congress decided on the date the elections would be held: The first Tuesday in November. Since that law was passed, it has been followed exactly as written – even in 1864, when the election took place during the Civil War amidst the sounds of shelling in the background as the slaughter continued.
In 1918, mid-term elections were held as the Spanish Flu raged in North America, costing at least 675,000 deaths. Many of the victims caught the flue during mass rallies that took place in the five days leading up to the election, after a decision was made to lift restrictions on public gatherings.
In that case, too, the idea of stepping outside the clear parameters set down in 1845 was never seriously considered. It would have necessitated approval by both houses of Congress. Even though 102 years have passed since that pandemic, it has been rescued from the annals of history. There is now discussion about a possible postponement of the election until the current crisis passes.
Basically, the chances of that happening are near zero, because any change to the election schedule set in 1845 requires the approval of both houses of Congress, which looks impossible given that the Democrats now control the House of Representatives. However, we cannot rule out other steps that the Republican leadership might consider if public opinion remains the same until the election: Such as a Republican governor of a key state – like Florida or Ohio – declaring red zones that would prohibit or limit voting there, which could interfere with the electoral process, and would then have to be carried out by mail. However, it is unclear how feasible that option would be.
The president's contradictory declarations about the causes of the crisis, who is responsible for it, and how it should be handled, and his escalating attacks on China are only a few indicators of the sense of threat and distress the White House is projecting. Even though the current situation seems wretched for him, it's too early to draw a line under the Trump era. Not only is Biden far from a clear advantage in the polls, he is depending mainly on harsh criticism of the president and rather his own abilities as the presumptive Democratic nominee who thus far has demonstrated an impressive ability to maintain his right not to speak. Given the fact that Biden will at some point have to break his vow of silence and have to deal with some skeletons that are coming out of the closet, the campaign could take a sharp turn.
Also, we must not forget the steps that Trump can take to steer the economy toward renewed growth.
So yes, despite the challenging current reality, it is a very real possibility that the president might renew his "lease" at the White House for another four years.
