Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen

Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen is a retired colonel who served as a senior analyst in IDF Military Intelligence.

Despite difficulties, lockdown is imperative

Given that the global epidemic is elusive, the various experts would be wise to err on the side of caution and assume the worst rather than rely on statistics.

The second wave of the coronavirus crisis is worse than its predecessor and its infection rate is staggering. How have we come to this reality, which threatens to undermine Israeli society and crush the startup nation's economy?

The government's success in quelling the first outbreak posed the prime minister as the captain who successfully navigates his ship through a massive storm and delivers it to safety. This sentiment was felt across the political spectrum, as seen by polls projecting Likud would win 40 Knesset seats in the next elections.

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The primary mission of "flattening the curb" during the first outbreak was achieved largely due to the strict lockdown and primarily due to public obedience to its directives. And even under those circumstances, there were those who denied a pandemic was raging and promoted conspiracy theories, attributing political motives to the rigid decisions imposed on the public.

Leaders of public opinion in the media even claimed that there was actually no outbreak except for infections in the ultra-Orthodox sector, as it obeyed rabbis over the authorities, and in nursing homes – something that was presented as demanding a parliamentary commission of inquiry.

The spike in morbidity is not a fait accompli – much of it stems from the public's gross dismissal of public distancing and other government directives. This trend is further fueled by a feeling of discrimination between various sectors in society as to the enforcement of the restrictions imposed on public gatherings, and especially over the labeling of very specific parts of society as the "cause" of the outbreak.

The legal limitations by which decision-makers have to abide with respect to curbing the mass protests outside the Prime Minister's Residence in Jerusalem are seen by many as a victory for freedom of expression, but absurdly, this only fuels rejectionism by those who have already understood that the health directives should be obeyed.

Moreover, we cannot ignore the fact that public health experts and epidemiologists, who are agenda-driven on the one hand and are in demand by the media on the other, encourage future demonstrations by citing the generic argument that there is no danger of infection in the open air.

Arguing that there is no data contradicting their claim is unfounded and dangerous from both health and social perspectives.

Given that the global epidemic is elusive, the various experts would be wise to err on the side of caution and assume the worst rather than rely on statistics.

Imposing a lockdown is therefore a legitimate and necessary measure at this time. Reducing morbidity depends on public obedience and the public must believe that this is imperative.

Applying this measure with determination but also using sense and sensibility, as it has the power to change the negative trend in morbidity, as demonstrated in systemic treatment in the first outbreak.

There is also no escape from the assessment that those who criticize the move, and in particular those who label the lockdown as a self-serving move by the prime minister, are striving to undermine all systems in an effort to remove him from power.

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