The fragile normalization between Israel and Turkey, which managed to survive the turmoil of the Temple Mount and Operation Protective Edge, has collapsed after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took a pro-Hamas stance in his recent speech at the Turkish parliament and at the rally for Palestine in Istanbul on Saturday.
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In fact, Erdogan's anti-Israeli leaning was evident from the start when he chose to remain silent on October 7, and issued a "balanced" statement the next day, calling on both sides to exercise restraint and not blame Hamas for the killing of innocent Israeli civilians.
Ironically, Erdogan's "balanced" stance was the most "pro-Israeli" position to be found in the Turkish political spectrum. All Opposition parties, including Turkish secularists and far-left groups, had taken a pro-Hamas stance. Their complete disregard for the Israeli civilians killed and unjustifiable concern for Palestinians in Gaza dominated the public discourse. As a result, the highly anti-Israel atmosphere left Erdogan with no choice.
Considering Erdogan's ambition to regain control of the Istanbul and Ankara city halls in the upcoming March 2024 elections, it seems that the Turkish president has taken this anti-Israeli move in order not to lose favor with the Turkish Opposition. In other words, Israel has once again become a scapegoat for political gains in Ankara.
But that's not all. The lapses shown by Israeli authorities on October 7 and the unknown fate of the Abraham Accords have weakened Israel's image in Ankara. Erdogan's recent rhetoric and diplomatic moves have also contributed to this change. In his last speech at the "Rally for Palestine," Erdogan labeled Israel as a "pawn on the chessboard," one that is expendable. Furthermore, he portrayed Israel as a failed state surviving in the Middle East due to Western support.
Erdogan's rhetoric is also reflected in Turkish foreign policy. Recently, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan publicly stated that his country seeks to offer guarantees to the Palestinians in the conflict. When the Turks talk about "guarantees," it's important to note the Turkish-Greek conflict over Cyprus. Israel needs to be vigilant and not ignore the fact that Turkey seized Northern Cyprus in 1974 thanks to the Treaty of Guarantee signed in 1960 between Greece, Britain, and Turkey. In other words, by offering guarantees, Turkey openly declares its intention and readiness to confront Israel in order to protect the Palestinians, both politically and militarily.
This is undoubtedly another deterioration in relations we haven't seen before. It seems that dark days lie ahead. In the same speech at the rally, Erdogan labeled Israel as an "organization" and described the state as a threat of the first order for Turkish national security.
In front of hundreds of thousands of his supporters, Erdogan publicly accused Israel of funding and arming the Kurdish PKK underground organization. Of course, needless to say, all Western countries, including Israel, define the PKK as a terrorist organization and do not support it. Nevertheless, due to his speech, it seems that after every attack carried out by the PKK, many Turks will point an accusing finger at Israel.
And if that's not enough, in his speech at the rally, Erdogan emphasized that he intends to open a legal front at the Hague tribunal against senior Israelis for their roles in the Gaza war. The implication is that after the war, Israel will face another legal battle within the courtrooms.
In retrospect, October 7 was a crossroads for both "ideological Erdogan" and "pragmatic Erdogan." It appears that the damage to Israel's image as a strong state and Turkish domestic political considerations have pushed "ideological Erdogan" back to the forefront of Turkish foreign policy. Therefore, Israel must prepare for unforeseen and anticipated political crises, such as the legal battle in The Hague.
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