With the 2015 nuclear deal all but dead, it is clear that Tehran is the big winner: It continues to move forward on uranium enrichment and will soon be a nuclear threshold state. The US has toughened its stance because the regime has refused to compromise on the ongoing investigations into the uranium traces found in undeclared sites, insisting that the West force the International Atomic Energy Agency to close the open cases.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Moreover, Iran has become a key component of the contemporary Axis of Evil because of the proactive support it has provided the Russian war machine in Ukraine. Likewise, the US has been less keen on restarting the nuclear talks in the wake of the brutal crackdown against protesters all across Iran. The Europeans, meanwhile, have been expressing the importance of returning to the deal in recent days.
Iran has seen a quantum leap in its nuclear program in recent months, rendering it impossible to return to the terms of the original deal. I supported a mutual return of both sides to the 2015 deal, seeing it as the lesser evil, but circumstances have since dramatically changed.
The preferred option is to kill what's left of the deal and pronounce its death. The current state in which it is perpetual purgatory only helps Iran: It keeps upgrading its nuclear capabilities without having to pay a price. Right after the deal breathes its final breaths – and while the military contingencies continue to be drawn – the US and the world powers must put on the table a better, longer and stronger deal. Pursuing such a deal is the preferred option in order to prevent an Iranian bomb.
So why hasn't this happened yet? With the US already out of the JCPOA, the only way to sign its death certificate is by having the European countries leave as well. This could be done with one of them stating that it has obtained information showing that Iran had breached the deal. Finding such information is like shooting fish in a barrel: Iran has been violating practically every clause of the 2015 text in the five years since the US left – in enrichment, in research and development, in installing advanced centrifuges, and so forth. Declaring Iran's breach is just a function of whether one of the parties wants to publicly say so.
As soon as one of the European countries makes this statement, the snapback mechanism will be activated, resulting in United Nations Security Council sanctions being reinstated; China and Russia would not be able to exercise the veto power they normally wield. But the Europeans have resisted taking this step so far, in part because they have a different approach than the US.
What does Israel need to do now? First, we must acknowledge that doing nothing is the worst of all options. Dithering on this will only usher in a more dangerous nuclear Iran when the sunset clauses expire and the remaining restrictions are lifted. Israel must make sure the deal is officially dead before the "sunset" begins – meaning before 2025. That means Israel must wage a large-scale diplomatic campaign and it will need marshal support from the Europeans for this.
Third, Israel must prepare a readily available military contingency plan. It will need continued US support so that the IDF would continue to get more capabilities. That's why cooperation with the Biden administration is crucial. In light of the reports on certain elements in the administration expressing concern over the emerging government, much of this collaboration depends on Prime Minister-elect Benjamin Netanyahu. Fourth, to prepare for the eventuality that Israel would have to use a military option as a last resort, Israel must gear up for a wide-scale regional conflagration that would include Hezbollah. Although it is not certain that such large-scale hostilities would break out, Israel should prepare for the worst.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
