Iran continued to provoke the West over the weekend in what was a clear attempt to extricate itself from the growing distress it is experiencing in the wake of US President Donald Trump's decision to withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and reimpose sanctions on the Islamic republic.
Iran's seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker was another in a long series of incidents, including an attack on at least four oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, the downing of the US drone, and breaching the uranium enrichment levels permitted under the nuclear deal – by which Iran is testing the West's patience.
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These were all seemingly small incidents – not the kind that warrants an aggressive response by the injured party – that also allow Iran to walk back its belligerence if it feels it has come too close to igniting a war.
On the other hand, Iran is determined to flex its muscles. The raid on the British tanker was a direct response to a British raid on an Iranian tanker in Gibraltar, but it is doubtful whether this action will change the British or European approach to Iran.
On the other hand, Iran's hope that London will pressure Washington to mitigate the sanctions is also unrealistic, as evident by Trump's statement on Friday that Iran is "nothing but trouble."
Still, it is clear that the US is not looking for a war at this time, and while it has reinforcement its forces in the Gulf, a direct military confrontation with Iran is not Washington's go-to scenario.
This means that unless Iran continues to infringe on Western interests in the Gulf – especially with respect to blocking the strategic Strait of Hormuz – all sides are likely to continue opting for aggressive rhetoric while leaving enough room for diplomatic channels to remain relevant.
Israel is currently at arm-length of this escalation and it must leave it to the United States to lead the fight against Iran, albeit it must also ensure that in each scenario its interests are preserved.
In the event of a possible escalation, it is vital to ensure that any military move on part of the West doesn't spillover from the Gulf to the Middle East and lead to a military conflict with Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, or vis-à-vis Gaza.
In the event that nuclear talks are resumed, it is vital to ensure that any new deal includes at least three elements: extending the supervision over Iran's nuclear program to decades, limiting Iran's ability to develop ballistic missiles, and curbing Tehran's funding of global terrorism.
Many hints were dropped over the weekend by the foreign media suggesting that Israel may have had a hand in a mysterious drone strike that destroyed an Iranian missile depot in Iraq.
Israeli officials have remained mum on the issue, but one must remember that Israel has been sparing no effort in recent years to stop Iran's attempts to entrench itself militarily in Syria.
Iran has employed tens of thousands of Shiite fighters, recruited to save Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime and with the civil war in Syria waning, Tehran had planned to deploy them on the border with Israel. The IDF's intensive countermeasures have forced Tehran to change its plans and send the majority of Shiite fighters to bases in Iraq, sparking concerns that the latter will become a base of operations against Israel.
It seems that whoever triggered the drone strike sought to undercut Iran's operations in Iraq. The US has denied any connection to the strike, but it is not the only nation to operate in the region. If anything, the strike in Iraq may indicate that the covert and overt efforts to prevent Iran from expanding its grip on the Middle East can reach farther than previously assumed.
