The main story appears to lie on the intersection between the current coalition crisis and striptease performed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's former spokesman Nir Hefetz.
How much is the Israel Police – under Commissioner Roni Alsheikh and head of the 433 Major Crimes Unit Roni Ritman – relying on Hefetz's WhatsApp messages, and how much are coalition heads willing to invest in forcing United Torah Judaism chairman Yakov Litzman to backtrack on his threats over the enlistment law? Hefetz's plea bargain to turn state's witness has created media commotion and hysteria, even though his information is of extremely questionable legal substance. Regardless, for the next few months, the Israel Television News Company and its ilk will probably have some juicy headline fodder.
What we now have on our hands is a coalition in a tailspin, and the prime minister could find it convenient to decide, on one hand, that it's a shame to hold together a fragmented government, and on the other hand – that it's a good idea to utilize the public political momentum, which has given him a giant boost in recent weeks. Netanyahu's conclusion could very well be to exploit the momentum that he and the Likud presently enjoy and go to elections as soon as possible. ITNC political analyst Amit Segal has even pointed to June 26 as a possible date for general elections.
Hefetz's plea bargain has to be viewed through a political prism, much like the other developments of the past several weeks in relation to the crusade of investigations against the prime minister. According to people "close" to Hefetz, he decided to sign the plea deal, among other motivations, out of concern for the country, and the message he wishes to convey: "The Netanyahu era is over." If he is a criminal, why is it so important to deliver such a patriotic message to the people of Israel? We were not told, however, whether his request to be named an Independence Day torchbearer has been accepted. His media ploy Monday, we could say, was consonant with the dubious genre espoused by those magically contrite criminal suspects who suddenly appear in court with black kippot on their heads.
Outwardly it appears as if the case against Netanyahu is a slam dunk. But it hasn't crippled his standing among his base supporters. We might also note: This is something the pundits from Haaretz and other intellectual sites will have to contend with in the near future. The deciding factor, therefore, is the sense that the only way to break this tailspin is elections with positive momentum behind the Likud. In such an election campaign, we will see the prime minister pitted against the establishment working to undermine the will of the people. Will Hefetz and the information he allegedly possesses play a starring role on Yair Lapid's campaign commercials? Anything is possible. Police leaks will find their way to reporters, become headlines, and from there, campaign slogans.
Netanyahu might consider it opportune to let Litzman throw a full tantrum – to have the dirty work done by others. The temptation is considerable at this point, now that Hefetz has joined the opposition, to take control of matters with elections.
