Recent developments suggest that Iran and the world powers are moving toward a nuclear deal. This is the phase in which every side wants to shape the over-arching narrative: The US has claimed that Iran dropped most of the outstanding demands while the Iranians have made it clear that they have not made any substantive concessions. The nuclear deal presents a calculated and more responsible risk than the current danger we face from Iran. What's important to keep in mind is that a nuclear deal does not mean a green light for Iran's development of nuclear weapons. It means the exact opposite: It is designed to prevent Iran from acquiring such means.
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If a deal is reached, it is safe to assume with a high level of certainty that Iran would not violate it until its main provisions expire in 2030, as it would gain nothing from such a breach. If it decides to break toward a nuclear weapon, the deal will have let Israel prepare in a more thorough way for a strike on its facilities.
One of the key outstanding issues includes the ongoing IAEA investigations into the undeclared nuclear activity in Iran where traces of uranium were located. Iran needs to provide explanations that would satisfy the nuclear watchdog, otherwise, it risks being punished by sanctions for not its incompliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Resolving this issue is crucial for Iran because if the IAEA doesn't accept its explanations, Iran might be subject to crippling sanctions regardless of whether a nuclear deal is announced since the IAEA would not be bound by itand it has sole discretion in determining the fate of such investigations.
Iran also wanted that the US commit to taking the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department's list of terrorist organizations. Iran has apparently dropped this demand. Iran has insisted that a new deal would have provisions that would prevent future US administrations from leaving it. Such a commitment cannot be incorporated into the text of the law since it is legally impossible to pass such a measure in the US.
Iran also wants an automatic mechanism that would make it a nuclear threshold state. This would essentially serve as a guarantee should the US leave the deal. Inserting such a provision in the deal would allow Iran to mothball its capabilities so that if needed, its enrichment levels would spike again shortly after a US departure from the deal. Such a provision is the most concerning element of the deal as far as Israel is concerned.
If a deal is finalized, Israel must prepare for a scenario in which Iran's uranium enrichment program moves full swing ahead as early as 2030. This means Israel must prioritize its operational capabilities so that it has the capacity to take out Iran's nuclear program without causing a flare-up on its northern border. More importantly, it must shore up international support for a potential strike, primarily by courting the US
Yes, Iran would rake in windfall profits from the economic benefits of the deal once it is implemented, but we must keep in mind that the current sanctions have not been able to keep Iran's military buildup in check. Iran may use the deal to bolster its regional presence but Israel has proved to be a worthy adversary in confronting such a threat. In the grand scheme of things, the deal would be inferior to the 2015 agreement, but it won't be a calamity for Israel.
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