It is easy to marvel at U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's speech at the Knesset Monday, as his warm rhetoric made it clear that Israel has many supporters in the United States. True, the vice president stressed that the current administration supports the two-state solution, but one achieved through dialogue, not an external demand imposed on the parties involved.
There is a sense of relief in knowing that the affinity Washington officials show Israel is based on their worldview and not just on calculated interests. It is easier for Israel to conduct itself vis-à-vis those who do not ignore Palestinian rejectionism or turn a blind eye to the Iranian threat.
Still, we cannot assume Pence's speech foretells the historical direction in which the United States or the international community are heading. Caution is mandatory because the internal political discourse in the U.S. indicates it is in the midst of a tense struggle over its own character.
This was demonstrated merely a day before the vice president's speech, when a government shutdown was called despite the fact that the Republicans control the White Hosue and both houses of Congress. The Democrats refuse to compromise because many believed that the midterm elections, set for Nov. 6, 2018, will give Democrats control of the Senate. Why pass a bill by a president who is about to lose half of Congress?
The Democrats continue to harp on the fact that Trump's election was no more than an accident en route to a dramatic change in the character of the U.S.; something of an involuntary response of those who are fighting a lost battle for a different America.
In Israeli terms, which are irrelevant to the American electoral system, this is a strong argument, considering the fact that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton bested Trump in the popular vote by some 2 million ballots.
The struggle between the conservative and liberal worldviews focuses mainly on domestic American issues, ranging from healthcare and taxation to immigration, environmental issues, abortions, and the status of Christianity in the United States. This debate also takes place on issues pertaining to American foreign policy, for example regarding the U.S.'s ties with European nations and America's inclination to maintain genuine relations with tyrannical states that violate the rules of Western democracy, the Palestinian issue and U.S. relations with Iran.
Israel is but one of many pawns in this game. It is not the important issue, but it is prominent because of its special relations with the United States and over the status and standing of Jews in American society in general, and particularly in American politics.
Here, Israeli and Jewish-American interests do not always coincide. As a small minority in a society where some do not easily accept minorities, Jewish Americans are not guaranteed to automatically support Israeli struggles, because they lend greater importance to internal alliances with the more liberal side of American society.
One must also remember that large groups within American Jewry are livid over the fact that an ultra-Orthodox establishment controls religious life in Israel while undermining Reform and Conservative groups, which together constitute the majority of American Jews.
For these reasons, we would be wise not to get carried away by the warm and welcome embrace of American conservatives, who currently dominate Washington. Israel should make the most of this situation to bolster common interests in the fields of intelligence and security and to promote Israel's vital interests, but we must avoid steps that could alienate other political parties in the U.S. and Europe.
Part of the essence of strategic vision is the ability to both recognize and consider all possibilities, good and bad. This is always challenging, and even more so when circumstances are vastly in one's favor. But we must always think about the future, which remains uncertain.
