Today, February 3, the Democratic party will launch its primary campaign season, after which the 3,979 members of the Democratic National Committee will convene in Milwaukee in July and select the candidate they want to represent the party in the race against Donald Trump.
And thus, as Trump's impeachment trial in the US Senate winds down and is expected to end in his acquittal, the public and media will turn their focus from Capitol Hill to Middle America and the rest of the country, where the Democratic candidates will wage a pitched battle to win the coveted nomination. However, the fact that the first round in this fascinating political race is taking place in Iowa, of all places, is rather paradoxical. Iowa, to be sure, is a largely homogenous state with a relatively small population, with a negligible number of Electoral College votes, and isn't close to being a representative sample of American society in terms of ethnic, ideological, social and socio-economic distributions.
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Indeed, we need to ask what the implication will be and what lessons can be learned, if any, from the voting patterns in Iowa, which is 92% white and just 3% African-American, and doesn't reflect in any way the deeply ingrained ethos of America as a rich melting pot of different cultures and heritages. In actuality, although Iowa and the second state on the primary trail, New Hampshire (where the primaries will be held on February 11), aren't an accurate lens of American diversity, they are exceedingly important in terms of their effect on the rest of the race.
In Iowa the historical numbers speak for themselves, informing us that a victory in the first round provides candidates prestige and an image boon that are vastly disproportionate to the unique state's relatively limited stature. Certainly, unlike a marathon race, where having an early lead doesn't ensure victory, success in Iowa has repeatedly been a springboard, propelling one of the candidates forward, opening the door to additional donations, and increasing their national profile.
Actually, Bill Clinton was the only candidate over the past four decades who didn't win Iowa and New Hampshire, and still won the Democratic nomination and then the presidency. Therefore, victory in Iowa (or New Hampshire), has become a precondition for winning over the hearts and minds of the public. In other words, as the first trial by fire in the battle for the nomination, Iowa has become perceived as a test of strength of sorts, or as a type of public referendum over each candidate's persona.
This time, the main contestants in this test of strength are two candidates whose only common denominator (aside from their desire to beat Trump) is their advanced age. In one corner, 77-year-old former Vice President Joe Biden's economic and financial policies are fundamentally establishment in nature; he isn't calling for widespread legislative reforms, and he claims to fight for the blue-collar class so worn down by the churning wheels of globalization and technological revolution.
In the other corner is 78-year-old Bernie Sanders, who touts a socialist-liberal platform, predicated on the desire to turn the US into a welfare state based on the Scandinavian model, while expanding a government program to provide health care for all.
The groups who support Biden and Sanders are also completely different from one another. While Biden enjoys a significant advantage among older and elderly voters, Sanders is the knight of the younger generations, which have heeded his call to fundamentally change the dominant paradigm in the American narrative, which is anchored in principal on unbridled capitalism.
And although other candidates are nipping at the tails of Sanders (who is leading by a small margin in the polls) and Biden, such as former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren (whose luster has recently faded), the biggest spotlights will be fixed on what is emerging as the main duel between the two sworn rivals currently at the head of the Democratic pack.
It goes without saying that from the White House's perspective, a Sanders' win in Iowa would be wonderful news. His social-democratic views on society and the economy can only be found on the fringes of the American legacy and would make him, if he wins the nomination, exceedingly vulnerable to harsh attacks from Trump, which would be sure to come.
Biden, on the other hand, is perceived by the president as a clear and present threat, particularly due to his relative popularity among Trump's main target public – the blue-collar class. And indeed, after the bothersome shadow of impeachment is soon lifted, the White House on Monday night can expect another piece of happy news: a Sanders victory.
