Fifteen years ago, when I made the move from the Labor party to Meretz, I said it was like moving from one apartment to another in the same building. I still believe that and I find Labor's decision on Tuesday to dissolve its alliance with Hatnuah troubling.
This decision will not change the electoral balance between the Right and the Left any more than Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked's split from Habayit Hayehudi will. The only one who could potentially do that is Israel Resilience Party leader Benny Gantz, whose party is this election's great unknown.
What the center-left bloc can do is try to be attractive enough to its supporters that they are motivated to vote. This is why the next few days will focus on the question of who or what could succeed in increasing voter turnout among those who all but given up and therefore have no intention of voting on April 9.
The Labor party is more than just a political brand – it is a component that is ingrained in Israeli society. The party has seen its share of electoral highs and lows, and like other social-democratic parties in the West, it has a solid base to sustain it even when it is weakened.
Hatnuah has no such base. It is essentially a party that is leader-focused – Tzipi Livni is an impressive politician whose contribution cannot be denied and whose personal road to the peace camp was long and admirable. But as such, its chances of independently passing the 3.25% electoral threshold and surviving politically are slim to none.
I believe that the nonright elements have a chance to create an effective center-left opposition bloc and that they can partner with some elements on the Right to form a government. This will be realized if Labor refines its message, especially with respect to promoting the two-state solution.
After its split from Hatnuah, Labor will need a new political alliance if it has any hope of rehabilitating itself after all the latest turmoil and Meretz is the natural choice. Labor leader Avi Gabbay may fear that Meretz is too leftist for him and Meretz Chairwoman Tamar Zandberg, for her part, may be wary of losing the party's clear line should she team with the far more centrist Labor. But overall, this partnership can only benefit both parties.
Neither party should be concerned as this, too, will be a fragile alliance. After all, the ease with which the Zionist Union was dissolved proved that no alliance in Israeli politics is a Catholic marriage.
