The tenor of threats between Israel and Hezbollah has risen sharply recently – not directly related to the customary threats voiced by Hezbollah day and night. On the two issues of disagreement between Israel and Lebanon, the latter has refused to reach an understanding: Israel's construction of a border wall and the matter of drilling for natural gas in the Mediterranean Sea in an area known as Block 9. Lebanon is digging in its heels despite mediation efforts, primarily on the part of the Americans. This situation has led to a drastic escalation of warlike rhetoric between Israel and its neighbor to the north.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun is spearheading this intransigent position and last week he convened two meetings of profound intra-Lebanese significance: first, with the Higher Defense Council, which he chairs. The council's secretary general, Saadallah Hamad, asserted that the construction of Israel's border wall would be considered an act of aggression against Lebanon, and said orders had been given to the army to prevent Israel from doing it.
The second meeting Aoun convened at the presidential palace in Beirut was attended by the three political figures in Lebanon who best encapsulate the country's traditional domestic divisions: the Christian president, Aoun; Sunni Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; and Speaker of the Parliament Nabi Berri, a Shiite. At the meeting's conclusion, Aoun gave an interview to an Egyptian television network and reiterated his bellicose declarations. In Aoun's words, "We will respond to any Israeli aggression and if it follows through with its provocation, there will be wars."
Lebanon is contending with a myriad of difficulties at home and that could partially explain the desire to divert attention toward the crisis with Israel, which has been exacerbated by the harsh tone. In early May, Lebanon will hold parliamentary elections viewed by many as extremely important, because of the new figures that will be elected. Another reason is that parliamentary elections have not taken place since 2009, and because of the discord between Hariri's al-Mustaqbal party and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Hariri is still threatening to resign if Hezbollah does not abide his call to "stay out" of regional conflicts. It's not for nothing that Hariri declared over the weekend that there is no chance his party would forge an alliance with Hezbollah and that the upcoming election battle would be between him and the Shiite organization. Incidentally, Hariri made his comments at a conference titled "Jerusalem, the eternal capital of Palestine."
The Lebanese media paints the following picture: American diplomat David Satterfield, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, proposed a land swap between Israel and Lebanon to resolve the row over the Blue Line border, which the United Nations drew in 2000 following Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon. According to the Lebanese, there are 13 such points of contention, spanning from Rosh Hanikra on the Mediterranean coast to the Hermon mountain range.
The American proposal for the offshore natural gas field, the Lebanese press reported, was to adopt former U.S. diplomat Frederick Hoff's 2011 proposal to demarcate the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel by giving Lebanon 55% of the maritime area and the rest to Israel.
According to Lebanon's L'Orient-Le Jour, a French-language daily newspaper, the government is demanding the entire 860-square-kilometer (330-square-mile) area. Additionally, L'Orient-Le Jour reported, Lebanon's position on the border wall is that Israel cannot build it on Lebanese soil. Lebanon's maximalist demands with little willingness to compromise are exacerbating tensions. It would be politically prudent to wait until after the country's parliamentary elections in May and then to amplify efforts, with Washington's help, to resolve both issues.
