For the first time since July 2006, when the Second Lebanon War broke out, winds of war are blowing in the North. Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has apparently had time to forget the horrendous destruction he brought upon Lebanon at the time, and he is once again playing with fire, hoping, and actually betting, that he will be able to control the height of the flames.
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In recent weeks, Nasrallah has been threatening war. Similar to 2006, when he demanded the release of murderer Samir al-Kuntar from prison in Israel, the return of the Shab'a farm to Lebanon and took military action to achieve this goal, Nasrallah is now presenting a list of demands that, if not met, his organization will work hard to attain, even at the price of war.
A dispute between Israel and Lebanon on the maritime border between the two countries is an issue that, by the way, could be relatively easily resolved in negotiations between the two. An agreement on this issue would enable Lebanon to use the natural gas reserves off its coast and put billions of dollars into its empty coffers; just as Israel has been doing for more than a decade.
But this is Lebanon, a failing country ruled by corrupt politicians, whose whole focus is making profits for themselves, and to hell with the rest of the country. Apart from that, the primitive mentality that Hezbollah is dictating to the Lebanese claims that it is better to harm Israel, even at the cost of destruction and ruin for Lebanon, than an agreement that will bring prosperity to both sides.
And so Nasrallah poses the following equation – as long as a satisfactory agreement on marking the borderline is not reached, he will not only prevent Israel from producing gas at the Karish gas field, which is, by all accounts, located in its territory but may even launch an all-out war, with a much greater scope and cost.
One could belittle such threats, which we often hear in the complex atmosphere in which we live. But we must also remember that Nasrallah has nothing to lose these days. Lebanon, where he became the king of kings, has crashed into an economic and political crisis unknown to the country for many years, and it is gnawing away at the legitimacy and leadership of the organization he heads.
Nasrallah might be hoping for an American-mediated agreement to be reached shortly between Israel and Lebanon since the gaps between the sides are not that immense. Then he would be able to present himself as the one whose threats saved Lebanon. As always, he also assumes that Israel will retreat from his threats or even absorb an injury to its leadership, such as launching drones at the drilling rig in the Karish offshore natural gas field or even launching a localized attack on the site, which will not destroy it but prevent its operation.
We can only hope that the Americans will come to their senses and make it clear to the Lebanese that Nasrallah's games could turn Lebanon into a leper-state, like Syria or Russia, but it is doubtful that they can be trusted in this matter since they still believe that Lebanon and Hezbollah are not one unit.
Alternatively, one can hope that Nasrallah's partners and allies, as well as members of his faction, will stop him at the last moment. But it didn't happen in the past, and it won't happen now either.
The ball is, therefore, in Israel's court. And to be honest, if Israel does not sincerely intend to confront Hezbollah or is ready to play the game according to its terms and at the place and time it chooses, then it is better to waive the confrontation already now. Because, after all, no matter how precise the attacks may become over the course of several "days of war" against launch sites, training exercises and camps will not change the situation at all.
These attacks do not stop the missile fire, and ultimately leave the other side feeling victorious, even if it's only a state of mind. After all, a barrage towards Tel Aviv, let alone an attack on it, cannot be compared in any way to a thousand attacks on launch pits or military storage.
So we must all hope that Israel prepares accordingly and that the fiasco of the failed conduct of the political and military leadership during the Second Lebanon War will not be repeated this time in the conflict into which Nasrallah is dragging us.
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