On Monday morning, shortly after the strike on the T4 air base in Homs, Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry rushed to attribute the hit to the IDF. However, there was no condemnation of Israel. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Lavrov issued the only official response, which was vague and restrained. Even the talk shows on Russian television, which is considered a government mouthpiece, didn't go after Israel and went into detail about the Jewish state's long-standing issues with both Iran and Hezbollah, which explained the strike. Moscow didn't shed a tear about the blow to the Iranians, who had forces at T4. Russia and Iran are involved in a complicated game of their own, in which each side is trying to exploit the other. There is no alliance and no love lost between them, merely tactical interests that coincide.
The reason why Russia rushed to name the country behind the attack was obvious. A day before the strike, when the extent of the latest chemical weapons attack attributed to Syrian President Bashar Assad was first becoming clear and the U.S. and France started threatening to punish the butcher of Damascus, the Russians made it clear to warn them that they would respond to any retribution against Assad. The "discovery" that Israel was responsible for the strike exempts Russia from having to respond. It all underscores how deep the understandings between Jerusalem and Moscow run, and how free Israel is to operate to defend its interests.
Russia has enough urgent problems to deal with and has no desire to throw a conflict with Israel into the mix. The Russians are feeling increasing pressure on their positions from all directions – in Ukraine, in Syria, and in the battle for public opinion, where on issues ranging from doping in sports to the poisoning of British intelligence agents, Russia is cast as problematic, aggressive and dishonest. Russia's hope of a major deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, which would acknowledge it as a superpower, has also proven false.
The recently announced new U.S. sanctions against Russia could seriously harm the Russian economy. The sanctions are aimed at companies and individuals who have a seat at Putin's table, and they are already feeling the first effects of damage that will be considerably more widespread. The Moscow Exchange fell by over 10% on Monday and that's just the beginning. Russia has no economic weapon to wield in response to cause similar damage to Western nations. But Russia cannot ignore the attack, because that would wreck Putin's image as the leader of a superpower, both in the West and at home. So the Kremlin will continue to ratchet up verbal tensions with the West and operate against it on various fronts.
