The ink wasn't dry on the optimistic predictions – overly optimistic, in hindsight – that the Afghan government in Kabul put in place by the Americans would hold on against the Taliban. And those same officials are already making different predictions, no less rosy than the previous round, that the Taliban of 2021 is completely different from the radical terrorist organization that presided over a dark rule in Afghanistan at the end of the last century, even helping al-Qaida use its territory to carry out the 9/11 attacks.
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The Taliban spokespeople are also trying to stress that they have learned their lessons and are promising that this time, they will show tolerance to their subjects. They are promising a broad government, in which all parts of the population will be represented, and asking that people calm down because they are not persecuting their opponents. Also, they say, minorities and women have nothing to fear from them.
Of course, there are media outlets that are throwing themselves behind the message. The first is Al-Jazeera, the ultimate supporter of any radical Islamist terrorist organization – Islamic State, Hamas, and now the Taliban. There are also plenty of western media outlets that are echoing the message because of political and other motives, painting a rosy picture of what is taking place in Afghanistan and promoting optimistic forecasts about the Taliban's so-called moderation.
But the truth will eventually come out. The reports from Afghanistan itself, unlike the scholarly predictions and analyses, show us a dark, primitive regime that is forcing itself on the Afghan people. Demonstrations and protests are dispersed violently, sometimes by shooting; Taliban members are going from house to house looking for those who oppose them, and often executing them. Meantime, despite the lack of any official order to do so, women have disappeared from public spaces and are hiding in their homes. And this is only the beginning.
Indeed, there are grounds to assume that the Taliban has learned from its mistakes, and that the advice it is receiving from its new-old friends – primarily Qatar and even Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has already thrown himself into expressing support for the organization – only strengthen its decision to talk nicely to outsiders while behaving harshly at home.
The Taliban is flirting with the American forces still stationed in Afghanistan and refraining from attacks on them – even providing them with assistance. The Taliban is also sending out message about its desire for international regulation that will allow it to receive economic aid and prevent military attacks against it. The Russians, Chinese, and Iranians, who are even more afraid than the Americans of a radical terrorist group ruling Afghanistan, have already made the decision to embrace it. Not that any of the previous three has ever had any scruples about how a regime behaves toward its own people.
But even western countries, the US first and foremost, mostly want stability, to prevent terrorism, and to block refugees fleeing the Taliban from entering Europe. Women's rights aren't a consideration for them, so when the day comes, women trying to escape might find themselves heading back to Kabul.
And when it comes to the Taliban itself, its actions indicate that it remains what it always was, a radical organization that seeks to propel the country it rules back in time 1,000 years. It had countless opportunities to "moderate," but now that it has won its battle and has no enemies, it has no reason to change course. Indeed, this is not only a political took with which to secure power, but the very identity and essence without which the organization does not exist.
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