The presidential debate made it clear: Unless something very unexpected happens, Donald Trump is poised to become the next president of the United States. With five months remaining until the election, this reality already has profound implications, particularly for the Middle East.
While Trump's impulsive, unstable, and unpredictable personality is often highlighted, his stance on Israel and its adversaries has shown remarkable consistency. Trump's unwavering support for Israel is evident. He perceives Iran as a terror hub that needs to be economically crushed and, if necessary, addressed militarily. This was clearly demonstrated by his decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, a move that heightened tensions and demonstrated his hardline stance against Iran. Moreover, his authorization of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian military commander, on January 3, 2020, further underscored his approach toward Iran. These actions also reflect his understanding of the threats posed by Iran's proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which he views as entities that need to be dismantled to ensure Israel's security.
In contrast to the Biden administration's passive-aggressive stance toward Israel, Trump's return would signify a shift to almost unequivocal support. History shows that when the US president has a clear and firm position on Israel, many world leaders, driven by the necessity of maintaining good relations with the world's leading superpower, tend to follow suit. This alignment can reshuffle the Gaza conflict dynamics and the possible escalation in Lebanon.
Iran, the primary sponsor of terrorist organizations in the region, is well aware of Trump's hardline policies. In the shadowy corridors of this oppressive regime, preparations for an anticipated shift in US policy under Trump might already be underway.
Trump's return to the White House and the anticipated rise of far-right political governments in several European countries (The Netherlands, Poland, France, and others) will have widespread implications. The current Israeli government is expected to benefit from broader maneuvering space if it remains in power. This shift suggests that the likelihood of a ceasefire under Hamas's terms is diminishing while at the same time, if Hezbollah keeps its militant aggression towards the north of Israel, the chances of conflict in the north of Israel are increasing. Under Trump's watchful eye, Iran would be extremely cautious about engaging in such a conflict, knowing the unpredictable nature of the US president.
These factors create a new reality, predicting a significant shift in the balance of power between Israel and Iran and its proxies. Both Israeli and Iranian leaders understand this.
However, this new landscape could present an opportunity: a realization by Hamas and its sponsors that their political or military survival is untenable, and Hezbollah recognizing that war in the north would lead to Lebanon's destruction. This may lead to their willingness to end this conflict now under Israeli terms before Trump's presidency begins.
On the other hand, it is essential to acknowledge that some factions within the Israeli government might welcome a significant escalation, viewing Trump's presidency as a green light to pursue their ambitions.
Regardless, the repercussions of Trump's expected victory in the upcoming election will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the Middle East, not just in the future but also at present.
Dotan Rousso was born and raised in Israel, holds a Ph.D. in Law, and was a former criminal prosecutor in Israel. He lives in Alberta and teaches Philosophy at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology (SAIT).
