Not quite a founder member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Turkey, together with Greece, was the first addition to the 12 nations that set up the organization in 1949. Both countries were admitted in 1952 in recognition of the vital strategic positions they occupied as outposts of Western democracy. With the Cold War at its iciest, the idea was that Turkey would help protect NATO's eastern flank from Soviet aggression.
As it turned out, Turkey frequently diverged from the consensus view within the alliance. But since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came to power in 2003 – first as Turkey's prime minister, and later as president – Turkey has pursued strategic and foreign policy goals that are increasingly at odds with the West.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
Believing that NATO was strategically dependent on Turkey and that its place within the organization was impregnable, Erdoğan has pursued his own agenda. For example, even when Western countries combined to fight Islamist terror groups like al-Qaida and Islamic State, Erdoğan continued supporting the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots. In Syria, Turkey is at loggerheads with the US over its support for Kurdish forces that Turkey views as terrorists.
Now, however, Turkey has placed itself so at odds with NATO that its very membership is being questioned.
At issue are two big arms deals being pursued by Ankara. Turkey wants to buy 100 F-35s, the latest generation of US stealth jet fighters, produced by Lockheed Martin. But Turkey is also engaged in installing Russia's advanced S-400 air-defense missile system. Defying strenuous American objections and the threat of sanctions, Turkey received the first shipment from Russia on July 12, 2019.
If the deal in respect of the American F-35s were to go ahead, the situation would become impossible. The S-400 is designed to detect and shoot down stealth fighters like the F-35. If Turkey acquired both, the Russian engineers and other specialists required to set up the S-400 system would be able to learn much about the American-made fighter jets.
So when it became perfectly apparent that Erdoğan was insistent on receiving the Russian ground-to-air missile system, Washington canceled the F-35 deal. In a formal statement issued on July 17, the White House said: "The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence-collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities."
Pentagon strategists doubtless see the S-400 deal as part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to undermine NATO, and the sale will certainly enhance Russia's growing influence in the Middle East. Every future NATO operation will have to take into account the presence of the S-400 system in Turkey – a disruptive effect on the Western alliance very much to Putin's liking. And on the plus side, the S-400 deal draws a line under the breakdown in Russo-Turkish relations that occurred in 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian jet on its southern border with Syria. The following year, a Turkish policeman, shouting "Don't forget Syria!" shot and killed the Russian ambassador at an art gallery in Ankara.
If this dispute between Turkey and the US results in the imposition of sanctions on Turkey, it could strain the close and long relationship between the US and Turkish militaries. An especially sensitive issue would be the impact on the Incirlik Air Base, close to the city of Adana in southern Turkey, 70 miles from the Syrian border. The base is operated jointly by the US and Turkish air forces, while air force personnel from other NATO countries are often stationed there. Critically, some 50 of America's tactical nuclear weapons, a leftover of the Cold War, are stored at Incirlik.
A NATO spokesman recently emphasized that "interoperability of our armed forces is fundamental to NATO for the conduct of our operations and missions" and that Russia's S-400 system is considered "technically incompatible with the weapons systems used by NATO countries."
The political crisis resulting from Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system has profoundly damaged US-Turkish relations and things could soon get worse. Turkey ignored US threats of sanctions and Washington responded by freezing Turkey out of the F-35 program. Now Congress is pushing for the imposition of US sanctions on Turkey. Future US-Turkey relations hang in the balance.
