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Prof. Eyal Zisser

Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

Who exactly is Abbas threatening?

His threats to resign and dismantle the PA, but also his promise to hold elections, which Hamas will almost certainly win, are essentially aimed at getting the international community to force Israel to meet his demands. This won't happen.

The speech delivered by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas at the United Nations General Assembly last month included, as usual, degradation of Israel. Less customarily, it also contained harsh criticism of the US over its unreserved support for Israel and its recognition of Jerusalem as its capital. Abbas also warned that if Israel acted on its intention to annex the Jordan Valley he would withdraw the PA from its agreements with Israel. He then said he would continue paying monthly salaries to the families of killed terrorists or those imprisoned in Israel.

Abbas, however, also offered a surprise twist by declaring his intention to call for presidential and parliamentary elections. As a reminder, the previous election, which brought him to power, took place in January 2005, almost 15 years ago. The election for the PA parliament, meanwhile, which he has since dispersed, was held in January 2006.

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This isn't the first time Abbas has promised elections, although in recent years he has swapped the "threat of elections" with the threat of "returning the keys" – or in other words dismantling the PA in its entirety – if Israel failed to meet his demands.

It goes without saying that these threats and promises are baseless. After all, it's not for nothing that Abbas has avoided elections for the past 15 years. He knows with virtual certainty, as testified by public opinion polls in Judea and Samaria and Gaza, that support for him and the PA are at all-time lows and that he could lose the elections to Hamas.

And yet, he continues with his threats. His threats to resign from office and dismantle the PA, but also his promise to hold elections, which under the current circumstances will almost assuredly lead to his downfall, are essentially two sides of the same coin. They are expressions both of distress and a lack of direction, and their purpose is to extricate himself personally, the Palestine Liberation Organization which he heads and, seemingly, the Palestinian national movement in general, from the dead end in which it is mired.

Abbas' words weren't meant for his own people, who have long since lost their faith in him and the PA. He was speaking to the international community, hoping it would rally to his side and force Israel to accept his demands. But this hasn't happened and it won't happen in the future. The world is fed up with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and therefore what was will continue to be; until of course Abbas' next "resignation" or "election" speech.

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