The evaluation, which forms part of the Trump administration's continuing efforts to assess Iran's nuclear program status following the facility strikes, was presented to certain US legislators, Defense Department personnel and allied nations in recent days, four of those sources confirmed to NBC News.

NBC News has also discovered that US Central Command had formulated a far more extensive plan to attack Iran that would have involved targeting three additional locations in an operation spanning several weeks rather than a single evening, according to one current US official and two former US officials.

President Donald Trump received briefings on that comprehensive plan, but it was ultimately rejected because it conflicted with his foreign policy instincts to withdraw the United States from international conflicts rather than deepen involvement, along with the potential for significant casualties on both sides, one current official and one former official explained to NBC News.

"We were willing to go all the way in our options, but the president did not want to," one source with knowledge of the plan stated.

In remarks delivered in the hours following the strikes, Trump characterized the attacks he authorized as "a spectacular military success" and declared, "Iran's key enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."

The actual situation as determined through intelligence gathering appears more complex. Should the preliminary findings regarding the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear program prove accurate as additional intelligence emerges, the United States might find itself returning to conflict in the region.

Discussions have taken place within both American and Israeli governments regarding whether additional strikes on the two less-damaged facilities might be required if Iran fails to agree soon to restart negotiations with the Trump administration on a nuclear agreement or if signs emerge that Iran is attempting to rebuild at those locations, one current official and one former official told NBC News. Iran has consistently maintained its nuclear program serves purely peaceful, civilian purposes.

The recent assessment represents a current snapshot of the damage US strikes caused amid an intelligence-collection process that administration officials have indicated will continue for months. Evaluations of Iran's nuclear program following the US strikes are anticipated to evolve over time, and according to two current officials, as the process advances, the findings suggest greater damage than previous assessments indicated. That assessment remains the current understanding of the strikes' impact, officials confirmed to NBC News.

"As the President has said and experts have verified, Operation Midnight Hammer totally obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told NBC News in a statement. "America and the world are safer, thanks to his decisive action."

In his own statement, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell declared to NBC News: "The credibility of the Fake News Media is similar to that of the current state of the Iranian nuclear facilities: destroyed, in the dirt, and will take years to recover. President Trump was clear and the American people understand: Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz were completely and totally obliterated. There is no doubt about that."

He added, "Operation Midnight Hammer was a significant blow to Iran's nuclear capabilities thanks to the decisive action of President Trump and the bravery of every man and woman in uniform who supported this mission."

Destruction and deterrence

The US strikes targeted three enrichment facilities in Iran: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. US officials believe the assault on Fordo, which has long been considered a critical element of Iran's nuclear ambitions, succeeded in setting back Iranian enrichment capabilities at that location by as much as two years, according to two current officials who spoke to NBC News.

Much of the administration's public communications about the strikes has concentrated on Fordo. In a Pentagon briefing conducted in response to reporting on an initial Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that concluded Iran's nuclear program had been delayed by only three to six months, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke extensively about the Fordo strike but not the attacks at Natanz and Isfahan.

US officials knew prior to the airstrikes that Iran possessed structures and enriched uranium at Natanz and Isfahan that were likely beyond the reach of even America's 30,000-pound (13,600-kilogram) GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs, three sources told NBC News. Those bombs, which had never been deployed in combat before the strikes, were designed specifically with the deeply buried facilities carved into mountain sides at Fordo in mind.

As early as 2023, however, indications emerged that Iran was constructing tunnels at Natanz that extended below where the GBU-57 could penetrate. Deep underground tunnels also exist at Isfahan. The United States struck surface targets at Isfahan with Tomahawk missiles and did not deploy GBU-57s there, but utilized them at Natanz.

White House officials directed NBC News to a closed-door briefing conducted in late June by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who informed lawmakers that Iran's nuclear program was "severely damaged" and that several key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," according to an administration official's description of the briefing provided to NBC News. Ratcliffe stated the only metal conversion facility at Natanz, required for nuclear enrichment, was destroyed to the point that it would take "years to rebuild," according to a White House official authorized to describe portions of the classified briefing.

Ratcliffe also indicated that the intelligence community believes the strikes buried the vast majority of enriched uranium at Isfahan and Fordo and that therefore it would be extremely difficult for the Iranians to extract it to resume enrichment, according to the official who spoke to NBC News. The United States has not observed indications that Iran is attempting to excavate the facilities, two officials confirmed.

As NBC News has reported, the Israeli government believes at least some of Iran's highly enriched uranium remains intact but buried beneath the Isfahan facility, according to a senior Israeli government official who briefed reporters in Washington last week. The official stated, however, that Israel considers the material effectively unreachable, because it is monitoring and will conduct new strikes if it believes Iran is attempting to dig up the uranium. The official also indicated Israel believes Iran's nuclear program has been set back by up to two years.

Similarly, even if the targeted Iranian nuclear sites were not completely destroyed, US officials and Republican supporters of the operation consider it successful because it has altered the strategic equation for Iran. From their perspective, the regime in Tehran now faces a credible threat of additional airstrikes if Israel and the United States believe it is attempting to revive clandestine nuclear work.

Asked late last month whether he would consider bombing Iran again if intelligence reports concluded Iran can enrich uranium at a level that concerns him, Trump responded: "Sure. Without question. Absolutely."

Iran's air defenses have been largely eliminated, making it virtually impossible for Iran to defend against further strikes on facilities in the future, the White House official stated to NBC News.

"It was made clear that Iran no longer has any more [air defenses], so the idea that they can easily rebuild anything is ludicrous," the White House official said.

The 'all-in' plan

Beginning during the Biden administration, as early as last fall and continuing into this spring, Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of US Central Command, had developed a plan to go "all-in" on striking Iran, according to a current US official and two former officials who spoke to NBC News. That option was designed to "truly decimate" Iran's nuclear capabilities, in the words of one former official.

Under the plan, the United States would have struck six sites. The reasoning was that the six sites would need to be hit repeatedly to inflict the kind of damage necessary to completely end the program, people familiar with the thinking told NBC News. The plan would also have involved targeting more of Iran's air defense and ballistic missile capabilities, and planners projected it could result in a high number of Iranian casualties. US officials expected that if that were to occur, Iran would target American positions, for example in Iraq and Syria, a person familiar with the plan explained to NBC News.

"It would be a protracted air campaign," the person said.

Some Trump administration officials believed a deeper offensive option against Iran was a viable policy, two former officials told NBC News.

Trump was briefed on the so-called all-in plan, but it was ultimately rejected because it would have required a sustained period of conflict.

The history

During his first term, in 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers that was negotiated during the Obama administration. The agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, imposed strict limitations on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for an easing of economic sanctions.

Under the deal, Iran was a year away from obtaining enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb. After Trump withdrew from the accord and reimposed sanctions, Iran violated restrictions on its uranium enrichment. Before the June airstrikes, the regime had enough fissile material for about nine to 10 bombs, according to US officials and United Nations inspectors who spoke to NBC News.

Trump has since sought a new agreement with Iran that would prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Indirect talks between US and Iranian officials failed to secure a deal before Israel launched airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

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However, at the end of the "12-day war" and following the impressive military success, a central question arises: how to leverage the achievements in the military arena into successes in the political and diplomatic fields. How to prevent Iran from rebuilding its military and nuclear capabilities. The answer lies in one word: enforcement.

The political stage is no less critical than the military one, and it requires a transition from a policy of deterrence and attack to a policy of regulation and enforcement. The war results placed on the negotiating table of the international community (and also of Israel) a one-time opportunity. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi himself clarified this point to the Iranians. With the entry into force of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Grossi wrote to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi about the importance of cooperation with the organization for a successful agreement, emphasizing that "this step could lead to a diplomatic solution to the years-long conflict surrounding the nuclear program."

Therefore, the central goal of the political move is to exploit the window of opportunities that has opened, the fact that the Iranian regime is wounded but not humiliated, to reach a comprehensive and new nuclear agreement with Iran. The crown jewel of the agreement must be preventing the reconstruction of Iran's nuclear program and the development of long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. To achieve this goal, there is a need for an agreement that includes tight oversight mechanisms, sanctions, and, most importantly, a binding, effective, and uncompromising enforcement mechanism. In other words, the sword of punishment must always hang over Iran's head.

The best example of the importance of enforcement comes from Lebanon. As part of the ceasefire that took effect on November 27, 2024, and the renewal of understandings outlined in Security Council Resolution 1701 from August 2006, Hezbollah was required to withdraw north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese Armed Forces were to deploy in the south of the country. But the Shiite terror organization never sought to honor agreements, and since the ceasefire came into effect, it has violated it time and again.

However, the difference between the 2006 understandings and those of 2024 is that this time, Israel acts to forcibly enforce the agreement. "I have said many times," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained on November 27, "a good agreement is an agreement that is enforced – and we will enforce it." Indeed, according to data from the Alma Center, since the end of Operation Northern Arrows six months ago, the IDF carried out more than 400 strikes in Lebanon – an average of more than two strikes per day. The message is sharp and clear: a ceasefire does not grant immunity to terrorist activity, but is subject to enforcement. Every violation will receive a severe response.

Therefore, Iran's fate must be Hezbollah's fate in Lebanon. Just as Israel acts to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its strength and establishing terror infrastructure in southern Lebanon, so it must ensure that any future understanding with Iran includes clear and rigid enforcement mechanisms.

Past experience, particularly that of the nuclear agreement from July 2015, teaches that without strict enforcement, any agreement, no matter who drafts it, will quickly erode against Iranian determination.

There is a need to exploit the military successes of Operation Rising Lion, draw lessons from previous political initiatives, and lead to an agreement that will provide security for Israel and the entire world. Effective enforcement, including oversight, control, and readiness to act immediately, particularly through military means, is a necessary condition for Israel's achievements to translate into real and stable security.

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This operation, led by Israel, may have averted a third world war by dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israel's action demonstrated its strategic value to American interests in the Middle East and beyond. No nation, including China or Russia, expressed regret over the blows dealt to the Islamic Republic. This strengthened American deterrence, justifying the celebratory tone Netanyahu and Trump are expected to adopt.

However, the meetings will focus not only on past achievements but also on shaping the region's future. Regarding Iran, the leaders will likely coordinate enforcement policies to prevent the revival of its nuclear program. Trump's statements underscore his role as a strict enforcer: He has taken on the role of the tough cop on the nuclear issue, as he emphasized after the strike on Iran. Yet, questions remain about how Israel and the US will address Iran's potential resumption of missile production, funding of proxy terror groups, or global terrorism – all serious challenges.

Gaza remains a critical issue. As long as the conflict persists, normalization with Saudi Arabia or other Arab states is unlikely. A partial agreement with Syria may be possible, but even that is uncertain. Gaza continues to be a regional obstacle.

Distorted reports in some Israeli media on Tuesday suggested Trump intends to exert "heavy pressure" on Netanyahu to end the war. This is a misrepresentation – Trump was asked how far he would go to push Netanyahu toward a deal to halt the fighting in Gaza. He replied, "very firm; but he wants it too." In other words, the prime minister is as eager as the president to end the conflict, and no rift exists between them on this matter.

Like Netanyahu, Trump and his team have repeatedly stated that Hamas cannot remain in Gaza. Those expecting Trump to demand an immediate halt to the war next week, while Hamas still controls the Strip, are mistaken. Both leaders seek a deal, but it must include ousting Hamas from power in Gaza and disarming it. The organization rejects these demands, making an agreement between Israel and Hamas unlikely.

Moreover, Trump remains committed to the "Gaza Riviera" plan, opposed by the Arab world and, naturally, Hamas. It is thus improbable that Trump will "force Netanyahu to end the war," as some in Israel hope. On the contrary, it was Trump who called for opening the gates of hell on Gaza.

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"No one exactly knows what has transpired in Fordo. That being said, what we know so far is that the facilities have been seriously and heavily damaged," Araghchi stated during a television interview with CBS News that aired Tuesday. The foreign minister's comments represent a departure from Tehran's typical practice of downplaying attack consequences.

Iranian atomic energy authorities are conducting comprehensive evaluations of the destruction, Araghchi revealed. "The Atomic Energy Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran... is currently undertaking evaluation and assessment, the report of which will be submitted to the government," he explained in the broadcast interview.

Intercepted Iranian communications have minimized the scope of destruction from American strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, The Washington Post reported Sunday, citing four individuals familiar with classified intelligence circulating among US government officials, according to CBS News. President Donald Trump claimed the operations "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, though American officials acknowledge that forming a complete damage assessment from the weekend military strikes will require additional time.

Diplomatic leverage strategy

Tehran's president issued a directive Wednesday mandating the suspension of the nation's collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency following US and Israeli aerial bombardments targeting Iran's most critical nuclear installations, potentially further restricting inspectors' capacity to monitor Tehran's atomic program that had been processing uranium to near weapons-grade concentrations, according to AP. President Masoud Pezeshkian's directive, however, contained no specific timelines or details regarding what the suspension would encompass.

Pezeshkian's directive, nonetheless, offered no concrete schedules or specifics about the nature of the suspension. Iran has previously restricted IAEA oversight as a negotiating strategy with Western powers – although Tehran currently denies any immediate plans to restart discussions with the US that were disrupted by the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict, AP reported.

Tehran has previously constrained IAEA examinations as a bargaining mechanism in negotiations with Western nations – though presently Iran has rejected any immediate intentions to resume negotiations with Washington that were interrupted by the 12-day Iran-Israel war. Iranian state broadcasting announced Pezeshkian's directive, which followed legislation approved by Iran's parliament to halt that collaboration, according to AP.

The legislation already secured approval from Iran's constitutional oversight body, the Guardian Council, on Thursday, and presumably gained backing from the nation's Supreme National Security Council, which Pezeshkian leads. Iranian state media announced Pezeshkian's order, which came after a bill passed by Iran's parliament to suspend that cooperation, AP reported.

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Strike results on Iranian nuclear facilities have ignited an open political-media confrontation across the United States. While American media outlets – alongside Democratic Party officials – question the extent of damage inflicted, the current administration maintains that Iran's nuclear program has been "destroyed."

Beyond America's domestic political warfare and presidential credibility concerns, two key motivations drive the White House determination to establish the narrative that Iran's nuclear capabilities were completely eliminated. The first serves as strategic positioning for future negotiations with Iran, essentially declaring that since Iran cannot currently enrich uranium, they shouldn't expect authorization for such activities under any new agreement. The second motivation, potentially more troubling, reflects White House reluctance to continue addressing this complex issue.

What does ground reality reveal? The sobering premise for this analysis must acknowledge that definitive conclusions remain premature, and generally speaking – these matters involve far more classified than public information. However, research institute satellite imagery analysis enables identification of substantial damage across core elements of Iran's nuclear infrastructure including the expansive enrichment industry covering Natanz and Fordo facilities plus centrifuge manufacturing capabilities; the scientists, installations and knowledge repositories comprising the "weapons group"; and Isfahan's conversion and processing installations, representing crucial bottlenecks in the nuclear fuel cycle. Nevertheless, the whereabouts of over 400 kg of 60%-enriched uranium – quantities theoretically sufficient for ten nuclear weapons following additional enrichment – remains unknown.

"Months until resumed production"

Rafael Grossi, International Atomic Energy Agency director-general, stated during this week's interview that Iran could "within several months" restart enriched uranium production. Anyone dismayed by this assessment overlooks the massive scope of Iran's pre-strike nuclear infrastructure encompassing complete production chain mastery from uranium mining through multi-stage enrichment processes – plus advancement in explosive device development. This represents extensive industrial capacity and profound, autonomous expertise cultivated across multiple decades.

The Institute for Science and International Security, headed by Iranian nuclear expert David Albright, released comprehensive post-conflict damage assessments based on satellite imagery analysis. This report, consistent with IAEA findings and substantially supporting Israeli intelligence assessments, demonstrates significant infrastructure damage.

At Natanz, housing approximately 18,000 centrifuges and serving as Iran's enrichment headquarters, widespread destruction is evident. Surface structures sustained damage during Israel's initial attacks, including facilities producing 60%-grade highly enriched uranium. The IAEA similarly concluded that centrifuges within underground enrichment chambers suffered damage or destruction from electrical grid disruption. Subsequent American bombardments reportedly struck these underground chambers directly.

Concerning Fordo, the heavily fortified installation featuring roughly 2,700 centrifuges that dominated headlines since hostilities commenced, the Institute for Science and International Security concludes the "facility likely sustained severe damage or destruction," though American media suggests more limited impact. Recent satellite photography reveals intensive Iranian engineering operations around blast craters, including heavy machinery and material transport equipment, apparently attempting to penetrate the underground complex for damage assessment purposes.

Isfahan's uranium processing facilities, constituting critical "chokepoints" between civilian and weapons programs, saw destruction of metallic uranium production buildings – essential links converting enriched gas into bomb cores. Infrastructure converting processed uranium ("yellowcake") into gas supplied to centrifuges also sustained damage. The IAEA confirmed "extensive destruction," including storage buildings previously housing 20% and 60%-enriched uranium, though material quantities present during bombardment remain unclear.

Regarding the weapons development group, representing Iran's most classified nuclear activities, Israeli operations eliminated over 14 nuclear scientists directly engaged in this work. Several individuals, including Freidoun Abbasi and Mohammad Tehranji, appeared on Tehran memorial billboards recently and received state funeral honors alongside regime leadership.

"They preserved this capability as organizational infrastructure for two decades," explains Avner Vilan, specialist in Iran's nuclear program, "but claiming no capable 30-year-old exists in Iran who could replicate this work? I'm certain such individuals exist." Furthermore, Villen expresses concern, stating he "wouldn't be surprised if another weapons group we never identified was operating parallel programs unknown to us."

Protecting gains

The critical question involves uranium stockpiles enriched to 60% – exceeding 400 kg, which Iran announced on the conflict's opening day they had secured through "protective measures." American officials claim this material lies "buried beneath debris" or "wasn't targeted during strikes." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alluded to "compelling intelligence" regarding stockpile locations, while IDF officials decline to deny possessing such information.

Iran's industrial nuclear program undoubtedly sustained severe damage, potentially requiring years for reconstruction as Washington and Jerusalem officials describe. However, Iran's nuclear weapons potential doesn't depend exclusively on large-scale industrial infrastructure but could emerge from smaller enrichment capabilities, metallic conversion facilities, and previous advancement – possibly concealed – in explosive device engineering.

"They observe what befell Kim Jong Un and Muammar Qaddafi's fate," Vilan explains regarding Iran's renewed nuclear motivation. "Unquestionably, Iran currently possesses extremely strong incentives for acquiring nuclear weapons and will accept significantly greater risks pursuing this objective." According to his analysis, recent strikes eliminated the regime's dual defensive layers – proxy forces and missile arsenals – "essentially leaving only nuclear capabilities as their insurance policy."

Vilan cautions about the primary threat, warning that "unless we force the regime into submission, their likelihood of developing nuclear weapons increased rather than decreased following these strikes." Essentially, Israel may confront another critical juncture resembling pre-strike circumstances. This doesn't invalidate the operation's necessity or necessarily diminish its accomplishments, but indicates Israel now faces requirements to consolidate its strategic objectives.

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Airlines seeking to restart flights include Flydubai, Etihad, Ethiopian, Flyyo, and Red Wings, among others. Blue Bird and Tus Airways are expected to return on Thursday. However, unless they expedite their plans, Flydubai and Ethiopian will remain grounded until the end of June. Hainan Airlines is set to resume flights to Israel from Shenzhen on June 29 and from Beijing on June 30.

Lufthansa, ITA, Air India, and United Airlines have canceled flights until July 31. LOT has suspended operations until July 6, and Etihad until July 15. Other airlines canceling through July include Air Seychelles, Air Europa, Eurowings, Austrian, and Brussels Airlines.

Delta has extended its cancellations until August 31. Aegean, Transavia, and Air Canada have halted flights until September 7, while Wizz Air has canceled until September 15. Air Baltic is grounded until September 30, and Ryanair, Swiss, Iberia Express, British Airways, and easyJet have suspended operations until October 25.

List of Airlines and Cancellations

• Lufthansa: Canceled until July 31
• ITA Airways: Canceled until July 31
• Air India: Canceled until July 31
• United Airlines: Canceled until July 31
• Delta Air Lines: Canceled until August 31
• Aegean Airlines: Canceled until September 7
• Air Canada: Canceled until September 8
• Wizz Air: Canceled until September 15
• Air Baltic: Canceled until September 30
• Swiss International Air Lines: Canceled until October 25
• Iberia: Canceled until October 24
• easyJet: Canceled until October 25
• Ryanair: Canceled until October 25
• British Airways: Canceled until October 25

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The operation – hailed by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth as a "spectacular success" – could reshape the Middle East, reducing hostile forces and, with hope, leaving Iran without nuclear arms or significant missile stockpiles.

It remains unclear whether Trump's recent public wavering on attacking Iran was sincere or a strategic ruse. What is undeniable is the complete alignment between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their unified diplomatic stance is mirrored by flawless coordination among top military officials.

The US role is a game-changer. The B-2 bombers, which Israel does not possess, delivered a devastating blow to the heavily fortified Fordo site, a feat beyond Israel's aerial capabilities. Only the US had the heavy ordnance needed to demolish such a nuclear stronghold.

Furthermore, the US strikes will likely accelerate the end of the Israel-Iran conflict. Within days, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are expected to inform political leaders that they have fulfilled their objectives, striking all planned targets since Operation Rising Lion began. The US involvement also transforms the conflict into a global issue, amplifying Israel's long-standing efforts to highlight Iran's threat on the world stage.

Military force alone cannot end this war; a US-led diplomatic push for a nuclear deal is critical. Trump, in his speeches, justifiably calls for the absolute surrender of Iran's regime, seeking to enforce peace through overwhelming strength.

Iran's next move is unclear, as the regime likely deliberates its response. On Sunday morning, it fired two missile salvos at Israel – first 25 missiles, then another five – hitting areas near Ness Ziona, Tel Aviv, and Haifa. Israel's disciplined civilian response limited casualties to one person moderately injured and others with minor wounds, despite extensive property damage.

So far, Iran has refrained from attacking US assets in the region. The full extent of damage to Iran's nuclear sites is under evaluation, and the world awaits Tehran's reaction, which may force a choice between nuclear ambitions and regime survival.

For Israel, Operation Rising Lion – peaking with the US strike on Fordo – is the high point of a war that began with the shock of October 7, 2023, when Israel was caught unprepared. Now, Israel has significantly restored its deterrence, neutralizing numerous threats – from Hezbollah in the north, Hamas in the south, to Iran in the east.

Without Yahya Sinwar's brutal October 7 attack, Israel's strategic posture might not have evolved. That assault enabled Israel to neutralize Hezbollah and muster the courage for a preemptive strike on Iran, potentially eliminating an existential threat.

Should the US and Israel soon declare victory over Iran, Israel's focus will turn to Gaza, where 50 hostages, including one woman's remains, are still held by Hamas. With Iran's influence diminished, some in Israel believe Hamas may soften its stance in talks, enabling Israel to negotiate from strength to secure the release of 20 living hostages and the remains of 30 others.

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The digital countdown clock was unveiled by demonstrators in 2017, during a rally marking the last Friday of the Holy Month of Ramadan, called "Jerusalem Day," instituted by the the founder of the ayatollah regime Ruhollah Khomeini as a rallying cry to defeat Israel. It shows a fist with the colors of the Palestinian flag punching through an Israeli flag. The countdown, which was just over 8411 days when installed, appears next to the caption "Left before destruction of Israel."

בהתאם להנחיית ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו ושלי צה"ל תוקף כעת בעוצמה חסרת תקדים מטרות משטר וגופי דיכוי שלטוניים בלב טהרן וביניהם - מטה הבסיג', בית הכלא אווין לאסירים פוליטיים ומתנגדי משטר, השעון "להשמדת ישראל" בכיכר פלסטין, מפקדות ביטחון פנים של משמרות המהפכה, מפקדת האידיאולוגיה…

— ישראל כ"ץ Israel Katz (@Israel_katz) June 23, 2025

"Following the directive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Israel Katz, the IDF is currently striking regime targets and oppressive governmental institutions in the heart of Tehran with unprecedented force," Katz said, adding that the central command of the internal security agency, Basij – which has cracked down on Iranians for decades and repressed their freedom – was targeted as well.

A List of Targets Struck in Iran This Afternoon:
1. Command centers and assets belonging to the IRGC and internal security forces
2. 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗷 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀- One of the IRGC's central armed bases of power; responsible for enforcing Islamic law and reporting…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 23, 2025

He then went on to say that the the notorious Evin Prison, "known for holding political prisoners and regime opponents" was also hit and the "internal security headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the ideology headquarters, and additional regime targets."

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It is too early to fully assess the results of the attack, which primarily targeted the fortified Fordo site, alongside facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. President Donald Trump quickly posted on social media, declaring "Fordo is gone," and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced, "We destroyed Iran's nuclear program." However, other sources, including Israeli officials, were more cautious, noting that it will take time to thoroughly analyze the strike's impact and the extent of damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities. This caution stems partly from reports that Iran evacuated highly enriched uranium and sensitive equipment from the Fordo facility to an unknown location before the attack.

The strike's significance likely surpasses its immediate results. What was not fully achieved in this initial round can be addressed in future operations if necessary. The United States has fulfilled its commitment to prevent Iran from nearing nuclear capability, reaffirming its strategic alliance with Israel and elevating military coordination between the two nations to an unprecedented level.

This operation also served as a fitting farewell for General Michael Kurilla, the outgoing commander of US Central Command. Kurilla, who oversaw Israel's transition from US European Command, built close cooperation between the two militaries and was among the hawkish American leaders warning of the dangerous alignment between Iran's capabilities and intentions.

The American attack relieved Israel of the operational challenges of striking Fordo independently, allowing it to focus on more accessible and pressing targets, particularly Iran's missile launchers, which continue to threaten Israeli territory. The Israeli Air Force's success is evident not only in the reduced volume of missile launches but also in their nature – intense operations in western Iran forced Iran to shift launches eastward, using longer-range missiles it may not have planned to deploy at this stage. Nevertheless, Iran managed to coordinate a significant barrage yesterday, and the scale of destruction from missile impacts underscores the ongoing threat.

Iran now faces a critical dilemma, with three main response options: full-scale escalation, including closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking American bases and assets in the Persian Gulf, as well as other regional states; complete surrender, accepting a forced agreement, possibly as a temporary tactic to later undermine it; or continuing the fight on its chosen terms against its selected adversary.

In Washington, officials hope for a surrender scenario that avoids deeper conflict and further complications in the Middle East. In Israel, there is open talk of a similar end to the campaign, though private discussions reveal an unhidden hope that increased American involvement could lead to the collapse of Iran's theocratic regime. The Trump administration clarified yesterday that regime change is not currently a goal, but with Trump, unpredictability remains – an Iranian overreaction could prompt another surprise move, despite significant domestic opposition.

Israel's primary concern is that Iran might shift its focus solely to Israel, opting for a prolonged war of attrition. While Iran pays a heavy price in lost assets, Israel has been largely paralyzed for over a week, and it is unclear how long it can sustain this state. Over time, achievements may erode, and economic and physical damages are expected to rise, partly due to reports of growing shortages in interceptors.

The prevailing view in Israel's defense establishment is that this peak moment should be leveraged to bind Iran to a stringent agreement with significant sanctions, addressing nuclear issues, missile production, and terrorism sponsorship. Concurrently, Israel could – as Washington also hopes – expand the Abraham Accords to forge robust regional military, political, and economic alliances, further complicating Iran's recovery.

These efforts will inevitably intersect with the Gaza issue, which, though sidelined, continues to draw Israel's attention. Early yesterday, a split-screen operation unfolded in Israel's command center: one side monitored the American strike on Iran, while the other oversaw the complex effort by the Shin Bet and Israel Defense Forces to recover the bodies of deceased hostages Yonatan Samerano, Ofra Keidar, and Sergeant Shay Levinson.

For a moment, the war's two extremes converged – the low of October 7, 2023, and its aftermath, and the resurgence that followed with its outcomes. Many in the command center were involved in both that failure and this success. For them, Iran represents a historic event and a professional and personal peak, but the campaign's final note must be struck in Gaza – with the return of the hostages.

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Video: Near miss in southern Israel during an Iranian missile barrage, June 2025 / Credit: Usage under Israeli intellectual property law Article 27a

According to initial reports, several impact sites and areas with interceptor debris were identified. In the Lachish region, fires broke out in open areas. In the Shephelah region, a report indicated a missile or interceptor fragment had fallen. As of now, no casualties have been reported. Additionally, a missile impact was reported on a road in the southern region, with no casualties. A preliminary report also noted an impact in a southern city. In the northern region, one impact was reported without casualties. Magen David Adom first responder teams were dispatched to scan impact zones. Currently, no casualties have been reported across all areas in Israel.

The Israel Electric Corporation issued a statement noting that, due to an impact point near a strategic infrastructure facility in the southern region, power supply disruptions have affected several communities in the area.

No emergency calls have been received at the national hotline, and it was not immediately clear if there were any casualties.

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