The American strike on Iran's nuclear facilities advances Israel's primary goal in this campaign – crippling Iran's nuclear program – but it does not yet signal the conflict's end. Further military and diplomatic steps will be needed, though early signs of these are only beginning to emerge.
It is too early to fully assess the results of the attack, which primarily targeted the fortified Fordo site, alongside facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. President Donald Trump quickly posted on social media, declaring "Fordo is gone," and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced, "We destroyed Iran's nuclear program." However, other sources, including Israeli officials, were more cautious, noting that it will take time to thoroughly analyze the strike's impact and the extent of damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities. This caution stems partly from reports that Iran evacuated highly enriched uranium and sensitive equipment from the Fordo facility to an unknown location before the attack.
The strike's significance likely surpasses its immediate results. What was not fully achieved in this initial round can be addressed in future operations if necessary. The United States has fulfilled its commitment to prevent Iran from nearing nuclear capability, reaffirming its strategic alliance with Israel and elevating military coordination between the two nations to an unprecedented level.
This operation also served as a fitting farewell for General Michael Kurilla, the outgoing commander of US Central Command. Kurilla, who oversaw Israel's transition from US European Command, built close cooperation between the two militaries and was among the hawkish American leaders warning of the dangerous alignment between Iran's capabilities and intentions.
The American attack relieved Israel of the operational challenges of striking Fordo independently, allowing it to focus on more accessible and pressing targets, particularly Iran's missile launchers, which continue to threaten Israeli territory. The Israeli Air Force's success is evident not only in the reduced volume of missile launches but also in their nature – intense operations in western Iran forced Iran to shift launches eastward, using longer-range missiles it may not have planned to deploy at this stage. Nevertheless, Iran managed to coordinate a significant barrage yesterday, and the scale of destruction from missile impacts underscores the ongoing threat.
Iran now faces a critical dilemma, with three main response options: full-scale escalation, including closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking American bases and assets in the Persian Gulf, as well as other regional states; complete surrender, accepting a forced agreement, possibly as a temporary tactic to later undermine it; or continuing the fight on its chosen terms against its selected adversary.
In Washington, officials hope for a surrender scenario that avoids deeper conflict and further complications in the Middle East. In Israel, there is open talk of a similar end to the campaign, though private discussions reveal an unhidden hope that increased American involvement could lead to the collapse of Iran's theocratic regime. The Trump administration clarified yesterday that regime change is not currently a goal, but with Trump, unpredictability remains – an Iranian overreaction could prompt another surprise move, despite significant domestic opposition.
Israel's primary concern is that Iran might shift its focus solely to Israel, opting for a prolonged war of attrition. While Iran pays a heavy price in lost assets, Israel has been largely paralyzed for over a week, and it is unclear how long it can sustain this state. Over time, achievements may erode, and economic and physical damages are expected to rise, partly due to reports of growing shortages in interceptors.
The prevailing view in Israel's defense establishment is that this peak moment should be leveraged to bind Iran to a stringent agreement with significant sanctions, addressing nuclear issues, missile production, and terrorism sponsorship. Concurrently, Israel could – as Washington also hopes – expand the Abraham Accords to forge robust regional military, political, and economic alliances, further complicating Iran's recovery.
These efforts will inevitably intersect with the Gaza issue, which, though sidelined, continues to draw Israel's attention. Early yesterday, a split-screen operation unfolded in Israel's command center: one side monitored the American strike on Iran, while the other oversaw the complex effort by the Shin Bet and Israel Defense Forces to recover the bodies of deceased hostages Yonatan Samerano, Ofra Keidar, and Sergeant Shay Levinson.
For a moment, the war's two extremes converged – the low of October 7, 2023, and its aftermath, and the resurgence that followed with its outcomes. Many in the command center were involved in both that failure and this success. For them, Iran represents a historic event and a professional and personal peak, but the campaign's final note must be struck in Gaza – with the return of the hostages.
