Despite the serious escalation in the southern sector on Thursday, both Israel and Hamas have been careful not to break all the familiar rules of the game, thus allowing for the possibility of a cease-fire.
The operational scope exercised by both sides may indicate otherwise – Hamas has fired over 180 projectiles at Israel and the IDF has struck dozens of targets in Gaza – but an analysis of the targets shows both parties "played by the rules": Hamas aimed at the Gaza-vicinity communities and Sderot (the rocket fire on Beersheba was the work of a rogue terrorist group in Gaza) and the IDF did its best to minimize Palestinian casualties.
It is, however, clear to both sides that they are playing with fire – literally. Every Hamas rocket or Israeli strike have lethal potential, which in turn, could cause the situation to spiral out of control.
There is also the issue of critical mass: The Israeli communities near the Gaza border are already on edge and another sleepless night or two is all it would take for the public to demand immediate action. Gaza's residents also have nothing to lose at this point, but contrary to what some in Israel hope, pushing Gazans into a corner with the hope that they will turn against Hamas may only cause them to rally around the Islamist terrorist group and support its war.
Meanwhile, as of Thursday night, efforts to mediate a cease-fire were less than enthused. The Egyptians are sitting on the fence, perhaps because they are fed up and perhaps because they want to teach Hamas a lesson.
Earlier this week, Egypt allowed a delegation of exiled Hamas officials, including Deputy Hamas leader Saleh Arouri, to travel to Gaza through the Rafah crossing to discuss a cease-fire, but as soon as the delegation left violence flared-up.
Israel hopes Egypt will realize Hamas is ungrateful and restrict the delivery of fuel and goods through Rafah into Gaza, but it is unlikely that this measure would be in Israel's interest in the long-run, as it prefers Egypt maintain the role of mediator.
What should concern Israel most is the fact that it once again misunderstood Hamas' intentions. The standing assessment in recent weeks was that the terrorist group was not interested in war and would go to great lengths to avoid it, and those who supported this view cited Hamas leaders' frantic rush to seek a truce after every border skirmish over the past few weeks.
Recent days have shown that the organization's intentions are different. The elimination of two of its snipers on Tuesday gave it the pretext for war, but Israel should not feel too bad – Hamas knows how to relay information to Israel and if it wanted to, it could have made it clear that it was conducting a drill near the border. Since it didn't, the IDF deemed the snipers an imminent threat and eliminated them.
This was just the excuse Hamas needed to ignite the border. Gaza's rulers have failed to effect change using the diplomatic route, so they naturally reverted to the familiar military one, just like they did in 2014, on the eve of Operation Protective Edge.
Israel has made it clear to Hamas that the path on which it is on is doomed to fail, as its offer of cease-fire will not extend beyond the opening of the Kerem Shalom cargo crossing and the expansion of the fishing zone off Gaza's coast. All other demands – the construction of air and sea ports and an ease of the restrictions placed on the types of goods delivered into Gaza – will require a broader agreement that will have to include the return of the two Israelis and the remains of two soldiers held in Gaza, as well as an end to Hamas' armament efforts.
For the moment, Hamas seems to believe that continued rocket fire will break Israel. The IDF, for its part, continues to strike Hamas targets to convince the terrorist group to stop. The next 24-48 hours are critical, and if the fighting continues, it is highly likely that Israel will significantly increase the scope and range of its strikes, which would necessarily spell escalation.
While neither side is ready to declare war, the distance between these skirmishes and a full-fledged conflict is short, and crossing the line between them could prove instantaneous.
This prospect requires the Israeli military to significantly bolster defenses, as Hamas may try to launch a surprise attack – most likely using a terror tunnel – to abduct soldiers and/or civilians, as it did in 2014.
Additional forces have already been deployed on the ground, and the military said that if need be, Gaza-vicinity communities would be evacuated so as to ensure no harm comes to their residents.
From an offensive standpoint, the IDF will have to come up with creative solutions, given that it has been denied a significant opening move. Hamas' leaders in Gaza have gone underground and the group has cleared all major headquarters and posts, and while destroying Hamas' operational infrastructure has its value, it is not as effective as razing a high-rise.
For these reasons, if Israel wants to end the next round of violence quickly and effectively it should wage a far more intense military campaign than before to make sure that Hamas understands the price it will be made to pay.
