A week after Syrian air defenses accidentally downed a Russian reconnaissance plane over Latakia, this tactical incident has evolved into a serious strategic problem.
Russia's insistence that Israel was to blame for the incident and the harsh messages coming out of the Kremlin leave little doubt, even among the most optimistic pundits, that reality in Syria is about to change.
Russian interests in deciding to give Syria advanced S-300 missile defense systems are complex. They are driven by the need to appease public opinion over the deaths of 15 servicemen in the incident, as well as by Moscow's aspirations to cement its regional and global hegemony.
This move should also clarify to anyone who assumed that Russia, which stepped into the Syrian civil war in 2015 to help its ally, President Bashar Assad, was somehow "on Israel's side" that this was no more that wishful thinking.
Russia is not on Israel's side. It never was. Russia is on Russia's side, and if a choice has to be made, it will first and foremost side with its ally Syria, the rehabilitation of which would benefit the Kremlin's regional interests in the future.
Russia's exploitation of the incident to serve its interests becomes even clearer given that the facts of the case are indisputable.
The Israeli Air Force conducted a professional and thorough investigation into the circumstances that led to the Russian plane's downing and the conclusive findings were presented by IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin in full to top Russian defense officials, who initially seemed to have accepted them.
The alleged "new" details presented later by the Russian Defense Ministry – and Moscow's blatant disregard of Syria's responsibility for the incident – were merely meant to justify the Kremlin's next moves.
It remains to be seen whether Russia will execute its plans, which also include restricting Syria's air and maritime space, and to what extent, but these moves and their aggressive undertone should worry Israel.
Russia was never a fan of the IAF's operations in Syria, but it was willing to look the other way until now. Given recent developments, Moscow is determined to show who really controls the situation, even if that means directly compromising Israel's security.
The potential danger of delivering S-300 systems to Syria is a familiar one. Still, it will take a long time for Syrian forces to master the systems and, according to foreign media reports, the IAF has been training overseas on how to counter them, so while they may partially tie Israel's hands, they will not come as a surprise to Israeli pilots.
The bigger concern should be the implied Russian intention to use frequency jamming technology to obstruct incoming offensives.
The IAF relies on advanced technologies and GPS-based weapon guidance systems to strike targets in Syria, and it is unclear how these systems will weather such jamming. This threat must be taken seriously not only because it may place Israel and Russia on a direct collision course, but because it could potentially place the lives of Israeli pilots at risk and undermine Israeli operations against serious threats in Syria.
Russia's statements have prompted the United States to weigh in on the matter as well, albeit a week too late.
But it is doubtful that U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton's warning that delivering S-300 defense systems to Syria will significantly escalate regional tensions will change Russian policy.
Bolton's statement did, however, make it clear that Israel is not alone in this fight, as he stressed that American troops will not leave Syria as long as Iran operates in the war-torn country.
Still, this situation remains mostly Israel's problem. While it is unclear how the incident will affect the IAF's operations in Syria, it is safe to assume that the coming weeks will see fewer – and more anxious – Israeli strikes.
The Israeli government will undoubtedly spare no effort to repair relations with Moscow, but there is no telling how long that will take.
The downing of the Russian reconnaissance plane will continue to cloud Israel's operations in the northern sector for the foreseeable future. There is no doubt that Iran will now try to stir up more trouble between Israel and Russia, and countering that will require tightening of the coordination between the Russian and Israeli leaders and militaries.
This will also require a great deal of luck so that Israel will not find itself in Russia's crosshairs again.
