U.S. President Donald Trump is one of a rare breed of politicians. Unlike his predecessors, he keeps his promises. The message the U.S. sent to the world, and the Palestinians in particular, when it announced it would open its embassy to Israel in Jerusalem as early as this May was clear: If you continue to evade peace talks, your efforts will backfire.
The Palestinian strategy is based upon the assumption that a diminishing U.S. presence and the resulting increased Russian presence in the Middle East, along with the troubled relationship between Washington and Europe, have combined to create the optimal conditions for ousting the U.S from its role of sole mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It may also be that Trump's problems at home and the questionable stability of the Israeli government have also played a role in the Palestinians' decision to push ahead with efforts to internationalize the conflict.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas made the first move in this direction when he spoke of "the Palestinian peace plan" at the U.N. Security Council last week. Although not stated outright, "the plan," a combination of the usual historical negationism and tired suggestions supposedly aimed at achieving a framework for peace with Israel, would in fact cancel the framework for direct negotiations between the two parties. It would also recalibrate U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which ties Israel's withdrawal from territory with the demarcation of security boundaries.
The world, which is busy dealing with crises like the one with North Korea, is barely interested in the Palestinian issue. At the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, for example, the issue was completely sidelined. Putting the Security Council at the center of Palestinian efforts was another mistake. No American administration, let alone the current administration, would allow this international body to lead diplomatic processes that are not in line with its policies.
Apart from Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Danny Danon's remarks and a short response from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following Abbas' U.N. speech, Israel has also moved on from the issue. While Israel may have its own suggestions as concerns the conflict with the Palestinians, it will not make them public before Trump announces his peace plan, which according to U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley will be made public soon.
Ever since the joint U.S.- Russia initiative to establish the Geneva Conference in 1973, Moscow has not played a significant role in the Palestinian issue, and despite conflicting reports, does not appear to have shown any interest in doing so. Nevertheless, the important role it plays in the Middle East today as a result of its deep involvement (alongside the U.S. and Iran) in Syria means Russian President Vladimir Putin could play a role in the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, if only to neutralize possible dilemmas that concern the conflict simmering between Israel and Iran in Syria and Lebanon.
Only a fool would try to predict how matters will progress in Syria. Although Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have succeeded, with the help of Russia and Iran, in maintaining control of the government, it will be a long time before peace and stability are restored in that country, if at all. Once improbable, a diplomatic settlement between Syria and Israel now appears to be less likely still. But that is precisely why good relations between Netanyahu and Putin could play an important role in putting out fires in Syria. Indeed, the quiet understandings between the two leaders on Israel's (relative) freedom of action in Syria have proved beneficial in recent days, as when Israel responded to the incursion of an Iranian drone into its territory with airstrikes, and they could also prove important when it comes to the conflict with the Palestinians.
