"Jordan won't take one more Syrian refugee," Jordanian Prime Minister Dr. Omar al-Razzaz said over the weekend. According to Razzaz, Jordan has already absorbed far more Syrian refugees than it can economically sustain, and therefore cannot bear the weight of allowing even more to enter the country. Razzaz's comments came amid a surge in the fighting in southern Syria and reports that thousands of refugees were streaming toward the Jordanian and Israeli borders.
Some 160,000 displaced Syrians have fled the battles raging in the Daraa region in recent days, about half of whom have gathered near the Jordanian border in the hope of being allowed into the Hashemite Kingdom.
Since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Jordan has absorbed an estimated 1.4 million Syrian refugees. Jordan has been harmed by the fighting in Syria more than most countries, because it has taken in the highest number of refugees in relation to population size. Even though the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees says Jordan "only" has 650,000 refugees, the reason is that most refugees don't want to register out of fear of eventual deportation. In actuality the Jordanian regime is coping with a little less than one million refugees who have infiltrated the country and settled there, mainly in the large cities (Amman, Mafraq, Irbid); while the large refugee camps, Zaatari and Azraq, only have around 120,000 people.
The cost of caring for Syrian refugees is close to $10 billion. Western and Arab countries, the Red Cross, U.N. and other organizations are helping Jordan, but its government bears the brunt of the burden. Its refusal to let new Syrian refugees into the country, therefore, is understandable. What's more, the refugees have created socio-economic problems in the kingdom, the consequences of which will be felt for many years to come.
Despite all of this, it appears the real reason for the government's refusal to accept more refugees is that it fears it could undermine political stability in the country. Ever Since Jordan's King Abdullah became the first Arab leader to call on Syrian President Bashar Assad to resign – after massacring his own people in the early stages of the war in 2011 – diplomatic relations between the countries have deteriorated and the Syrian regime has sought to cripple the kingdom's political stability.
Although Jordanian intelligence has managed to curb these machinations (by arresting suspect refugees and putting others under surveillance, among other measures), in recent months – with the Syrian regime solidifying its grip over the country, including in the south, along with the Iranian presence there – there are rising concerns the Syrians will seek to topple the Hashemite regime.
Allowing more Syrian refugees to enter, therefore, could help the Syrian regime and Tehran exploit the situation, embed agents posing as innocent refugees, and establish "sleeper networks" to help unseat the Hashemite regime when the time comes. Iran, we know, aspires to expand its sphere of influence in the Middle East and is spreading its Shiite tentacles to other countries to undermine their stability. Jordan is a very important target in Iran's eyes, as seizing it would give the Islamic republic another bridgehead for attacks on Israel.
Thus Jordan is coordinating its measures to counter the Iranian threat with the Israeli government. To this end it has also sought a cease-fire deal in southern Syria – to reduce tensions there and keep Iranian forces away from the border. These forces pose a threat to Israel, but also to Jordan.
