Kulanu leader Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon on Friday informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that unless parliament votes on the 2019 state budget on March 15 as planned, his party would exit the coalition.
The move will surely trigger a general election.
Kahlon's statement followed a threat by ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism to stall the vote on the state budget unless their amendment to Israel's Defense Service Law, seeking to exempt nonreligious Torah scholars from military service, in addition to the ultra-Orthodox, is passed.
Coalition insiders said securing the majority vote necessary to pass the controversial amendment would be difficult, as Yisrael Beytenu leader Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said his party would vote against it.
The haredi parties' threat has thrown a wrench in Netanyahu and Kahlon's plan to pass the 2019 budget earlier than originally scheduled, so as to ensure the coalitions' stability.
The current conscription exemptions afforded to yeshiva students will expire in September this year, in accordance with a High Court of Justice ruling.
While the coalition partners said they would negotiate a solution by then, the Council of Torah Greats, to which United Torah Judaism defers, has ruled that the amendment must pass before the party could vote in favor of the budget, saying that if they allow the state budget to pass before the issue is resolved, none of the coalition partners would be motivated to support the controversial bill.
Likud, for its part, was reluctant to push the new draft bill due to the political and public backlash over the ruling party's support of the Supermarkets Law in January. The law gives the interior minister the power to shutter businesses that choose to remain open on Shabbat and was lambasted as religious coercion and a capitulation to the haredi parties.
The issue of conscription exemptions to yeshiva students is considered a political hot potato, as it touches directly on the issue of burden equality, and Likud insiders told Israel Hayom the party believes this would make pushing it through exceedingly difficult.
Netanyahu, who embarked on a five-day visit to the United States Saturday night, said that he believes "there is no reason for the coalition to dissolve and for us to call for early elections, and with some good will it won't happen. I have this goodwill and I hope our partners do, too. There is no reason to call for early elections. This government can live out its term."
Israel's next general elections are scheduled to take place in November 2019.
'The key is in Netanyahu's hands'
"We're facing great uncertainty. We're at an impasse. When things look like this, we'll seek early elections," a United Torah Judaism MK told Israel Hayom.
A fellow party member said, "This is a very serious situation. If nothing happens in the coming Knesset session – this dynamic could lead to elections. We won't let this session elapse without a solution for yeshiva students. The ball is in Likud's court. We are waiting for them to come up with suggestions and solutions."
He dismissed assessments suggesting that calling for early elections over the conscription of yeshiva students will be a boon for Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, saying, "What bolsters Lapid is the bizarre laws introduced by Likud, like the police recommendations bill. That is what has inflicted damage, not the new draft bill. Even if the Messiah headed the government, unless he introduced a solution to the issue of yeshiva students, we won't be able to sit in his government."
Another United Torah Judaism MK criticized Kahlon, saying that he was the reason for the crisis.
"Everyone had agreed to pass an exception clause – not just for us, but also for bills concerning Judea and Samaria. Everyone agreed. Lieberman, [Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali] Bennett and Likud. Only Kahlon opposed it because he wants to appease the Left and look like he's defending the High Court," he said.
Israeli law allows certain laws to include an exception clause, limiting the High Court's ability to strike them down. The exception clause remains in effect for a limited amount of time, usually no longer than four years. The move, does, however, require a majority vote of at least 61 MKs.
Meanwhile, Shas officials tried to tone down the rhetoric.
"This coalition is good for the haredi public and we should preserve it," Shas MK Yakov Margi told Israel Hayom. "The prime minister has to sit the coalition partners down and come up with a solution. The key is in Netanyahu's hands."
Last week, Shas and United Torah Judaism's leaders met with Netanyahu and agreed to form a special team to resolve the situation, comprising Tourism Minister Yariv Levin, Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage Minister Zeev Elkin, delegates from the haredi parties and an official from the Attorney General's Office.
Lieberman also said he has tasked Defense Ministry officials to formulate alternative legislation on the issue.
