The United States appears to be walking away from a pledge to enforce an arrangement to stabilize southwestern Syria as the Syrian military presses ahead with an offensive in the rebel-held area despite repeated U.S. warnings.
The offensive violates an agreement reached nearly a year ago between the U.S., Russia and neighboring Jordan, whose monarch met with President Donald Trump on Monday. The agreement is intended to preserve the status quo in Syria's southwest.
But recent public and private statements suggest the U.S. commitment is slipping.
Although the Trump administration has been consistent in criticizing Russia for backing Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces as they advance into the "de-escalation zone" in the province of Daraa, over the past two weeks American officials have steadily walked back on warnings of U.S. retaliation for violations.
As the situation became more critical Monday, threatening an influx of refugees fleeing the fighting into Jordan, Amman announced it would not take in the newly displaced.
Trump has made no secret of his desire to extricate the United States from Syria. The White House said Syria would be on the agenda of Trump's talks with Jordan's King Abdullah, but neither leader mentioned that country in their brief comments to reporters Monday.
Trump said only that a "lot of progress" had been made in the Middle East, but he did not offer details.
Earlier Monday, the State Department said the situation in southwest Syria remains a matter of serious concern. Notably, it did not repeat earlier threats of a U.S. response, which had been standard in such comments since May.
The quiet backtrack has occurred over the past month, with what started as allusions to a potential U.S. military response evolving into mere expressions of concern.
In late May, the State Department first sounded the alarm in public about an "impending" operation by Assad's forces in the area covered by the cease-fire. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert warned both Syria and Russia on May 25 that "the United States will take firm and appropriate measures in response to Assad regime violations."
Nauert repeated the threat two weeks later, on June 14, as indications grew that a Syrian operation could be imminent. Upping the rhetoric against Russia, she said the cease-fire "must continue to be enforced and respected. We affirm again that the United States will take firm and appropriate measures in response to Syrian government violations in this area."
But by June 21, amid reports that Syrian forces were actually operating in the cease-fire area, the U.S. had backed away from that tough line, warning only of "the serious repercussions of these violations." Nauert, in a statement urging all sides not to let the conflict broaden, did not elaborate on what those repercussions might be.
In a meeting two days later between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and King Abdullah, Syria did not even come up, at least according to the official U.S. description of the meeting. Instead, the two discussed economics, defeating the Islamic State group and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the State Department said in a statement.
Over the weekend, reports emerged that the U.S. liaison team to rebels in Daraa had told rebel commanders that they were essentially on their own.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and Daraa-based opposition activist Osama Hourani said the U.S. had informed rebel groups in southern Syria that Washington would not intervene to defend them.
A U.S. official familiar with the matter confirmed on Monday that officials at the U.S. Embassy in Amman had sent text messages to the commanders advising them that they should make decisions about continuing to fight based on the interests of their factions and families and not "on the assumption or expectation of military intervention by us."
Monday's State Department statement, meanwhile, made no mention of any repercussions from the U.S. or anyone else. Instead, the U.S. said it was "closely following the situation and emphasizing to Russia the "critical nature of the mutual adherence to the cease-fire arrangement."
"We will not comment further on ongoing diplomatic conversations," it said.
