Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no interest in calling an early election. Anyone who thinks this is his plan is wrong. Netanyahu meant every word he said when told the leaders of coalition parties a few weeks ago that he wanted the next general election to take place as originally planned (early November 2019). But on Tuesday, the High Court of Justice ruled that the contentious bill on to conscript haredi yeshiva students into the military could be postponed for only four months. That might change things.
The ruling means that the coalition will only have two months from the time the Knesset winter session opens to pass a law that for now appears to be unpassable. The government's original request that the High Court allow it more time, until April 2019 – or the end of the winter session – had the clear goal of preventing the haredi conscription bill from being used as leverage to move up the general election.
It looks like the upcoming winter session will be the last one for the current Knesset. If the High Court had allowed the government to put off passing the conscription bill until April, the government could have wound up in a situation in which it ended the winter session not by passing legislation on haredi conscription, but by passing a law to disperse the Knesset. The shorter-term postponement allowed by the High Court demands that the coalition decide: haredi conscription or an early election. The ball is in Netanyahu's hands, but his coalition partners are in the game, too.
The conscription bill passed its first reading with the support of the centrist Yesh Atid party, which is not a member of the coalition. The haredi parties abstained. Theoretically, it could have passed the requisite second and third readings in the same manner, but United Torah Judaism made it clear that such a gambit would force it to resign from the government.
On the other hand, if the bill is changed to suit the haredim, Yisrael Beytenu Chairman and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman could also wind up leaving the government. The last thing Netanyahu wants is an early election because of the conscription issue. So many believe he would prefer to disperse the current Knesset as soon as the next session starts, about two months from now.
Meanwhile, Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon has been saying for months he thinks that the election will be held this coming January or February, and has already launched a rebranded campaign.
But there is another possibility – that either the haredim or Lieberman will send a signal to Netanyahu that he can proceed with the bill without concern that they will abandon the government. If that happens, Netanyahu would prefer to pass the bill and clear the issue of haredi military conscription off the national agenda for decades to come, or until the next High Court petition.
