Tensions between Iran and the United States inched closer to a boiling point as Israelis were celebrating their country's independence on Thursday – as the drums of war are beating ever louder in the Persian Gulf even though both sides clearly don't want one.
The escalation began with a verbal exchange. On the one-year anniversary of the United States' withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told global powers that his country would cease fulfilling its obligations as part of the deal. At this stage, this mostly means Iran will stop shipping abroad its surplus of enriched uranium and heavy water, as it prepares to enrich uranium at a greater pace.
In response, the White House said it would impose additional sanctions on Iran – not just on its oil production, banks and foreign trade, but on its metals industry. This sector is Iran's top job provider and hurting it could leave many Iranians unemployed, which in turn would increase internal strife.
But the main factor behind increased tensions in the Persian Gulf over the past two days was the Pentagon's decision to deploy the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier and four B-52H bombers to Qatar. The backdrop, as conveyed by the Pentagon, were fears that Iran was planning to attack American forces stationed in Iraq, perhaps via Shiite militias that it controls.
It's hard to misread these developments. After a year of harsh sanctions, the ayatollah regime in Iran is exceedingly frustrated. This frustration stems from the country's drastic economic downturn, but also from the fact that European countries – who are co-signed to the nuclear deal – have not kept their promises to compensate European companies that continued doing business with Tehran despite the sanctions imposed by Washington.
There's no question the Trump administration is also disappointed. Although the sanctions are having an effect, they still haven't forced Iran to wave the white flag and agree to fundamentally amend the nuclear deal to include shelving its ballistic missile project and ceasing its subversive activities via its proxies across the region.
Moreover, if we can assess the situation according to the behavior of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the latest round of violence with Israel, Iran has only amplified its subversive efforts. This terrorist organization, which is completely subordinate to and entirely funded by Tehran, ignited the latest skirmish by sniping at IDF officers on the border and it is the one presently spearheading, at the behest of Iran, the most aggressive line against Israel.
How will developments in the Persian Gulf unfold in the weeks ahead? It's too soon to make a determination. The Iranians' move to cancel "some" of their obligations stipulated by the nuclear deal is not irreversible and was the least they could permit themselves without being accused of violating it. The main objective behind their move is to incentivize the Europeans to fulfill their promises, and Rouhani even declared a 60-day extension for global powers to reconsider – before Iran accelerates its uranium enrichment.
The Trump administration, for its part, stressed that its military reinforcements are only intended to deter Iran from attacking American forces in the region, adding that the purpose for increasing sanctions is to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
The problem, of course, is that it's entirely uncertain any of this will actually transpire in the near future. We don't know if the Europeans will surrender to Iranian extortion, and it's almost assured that the White House will not halt sanctions before the Iranians agree to recalibrate their course of action.
This dynamic is a sure-fire recipe for heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf and opens the door for a military escalation. The ayatollah regime, if it feels it must, could renew uranium enrichment and risk a limited military confrontation with the U.S., over the prospect of regime collapse due to domestic revolt amid the country's increasingly dire economic situation.
We need to understand that the shockwaves from such a clash, if it indeed occurs, will reach us. During the Gulf War, Saddam Hussein launched Scud missiles at Israel. Iran, if it is attacked, will unleash it proxies, chief among them Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, against Israel.
