The string of recent events leaves no room for doubt: The Palestinian arena is trending in a clear and dangerous direction, and for the first time in a while, Israel must cope with combustible situations in both Gaza and Judea and Samaria.
In theory, the two sectors are unrelated. The terrorist who carried out the car-ramming attack in Gush Etzion on Friday acted alone and without direction from any terrorist organization. It's possible that he was inspired by the terrorists who a week earlier murdered IDF soldier Dvir Sorek in the same area, and took the opportunity to run over the young hitchhikers standing on the side of the road.
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Nevertheless, the ramming attack (like the one before it) can still be traced back to Hamas. The terrorist organization was quick to hail the attack, stating it was the result of the struggle for the Temple Mount. These two words – Temple Mount – are a proven recipe for incitement, certainly during the Muslim week of Eid al-Adha, which traditionally sparks regional tensions anyway.
Thus far these terrorist attacks haven't roused the Palestinian public from its general state of apathy. Judea and Samaria haven't seen riots or a rise in violent activities (stone-throwing, fire bombings), but Israel cannot ignore the rise in serious terrorist attacks, and especially their contagious effect. For now, decision-makers are still refraining from bolstering forces stationed in Judea and Samaria, but increased vigilance is indeed required to prevent additional attacks.
In Gaza, too, the general public remains largely disengaged from recent events. The border demonstration on Friday was "normal," without an unusual number of participants, but the rocket fire on Friday and Saturday is already a different story. While Friday's rocket (which was intercepted) was dismissed within the defense establishment as "yet another act by recalcitrant and disillusioned jihadists" – similar to the infiltration attempts that were foiled in recent weeks – Saturday's rocket barrage cannot merely be attributed to the neighborhood nut job: There was a guiding hand behind it, or at the very least a blind eye was intentionally turned.
For numerous reasons, Israel doesn't want another war in Gaza. Hamas understands this, and similar to election-day eve in April, it wants to exploit the situation. It is simultaneously stirring the pot in Judea and Samaria – calling on the masses to take to the streets and carry out attacks, while funding and directing its cells to take immediate action – while continuing to play its familiar game of raising and lowering the flames in Gaza.
Israel will not restrain itself from responding to the rocket attack on Sderot, just as it didn't restrain itself on Friday. However, the game it now has to play is more complex than simple tit-for-tat use of force. If it responds too softly, Hamas will perceive weakness and continue applying pressure in order to win concessions (from more money to easing restrictions at the border crossings, and other matters that can help it improve Gaza's dire economic and humanitarian situation). If Israel responds too harshly, it could become enmeshed in another undesired military campaign, which considering the recent uptick in tensions could also spark a serious escalation in Judea and Samaria.
Regardless, the government and IDF's first and foremost obligation is to the residents of the south. A reality of intermittent rocket attacks on Gaza-adjacent communities is intolerable; it needs to be extinguished immediately, even at the cost of an escalation – with all its inherent risks. If Israel is indeed forced to fight another war in Gaza, better for it to happen while schoolchildren are on summer vacation and residents can be easily relocated to other parts of the country; and when operational conditions are relatively convenient from the army's perspective (just two weeks ago, the Gaza Division concluded a large exercise and declared it was more ready than ever for a fight).
It's desirable, of course, for Israel to calm the situation in the south before it boils over into a broad conflagration – as it has done several times in the past 18 months. To this end, Israel can also grant additional leeway to Egyptian mediators and United Nations envoys. But all this must result in one clear stipulation: Hamas won't be able to play with fire all by itself anymore. If it continues to play with fire (in Judea and Samaria, Gaza, or both) it will be engulfed by a flame that is far worse.
