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Home Analysis

Netanyahu's early Hanukkah gift

POTUS policy reversal boosts Bibi, but exposes Benny.

by  Noa Amouyal
Published on  11-19-2019 11:03
Last modified: 11-24-2019 13:37
Netanyahu: Indictment hearing should be aired live so public can hear my sideAFP/Sebastian Scheiner

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu | File photo: AFP/Sebastian Scheiner

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On Monday afternoon, the mood in the Knesset was tense. With only two days left until the end of Blue and White leader Benny Gantz's mandate to form a government, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued an 11th-hour warning to anybody who would listen: Allowing Israel to form a minority government with the Arab-led Joint List is an existential threat to the country.

"This is an emergency. This is a fateful moment in Israel's history. It could be that in the next 48 hours, we will have a government that depends on terrorist supporters," Netanyahu said.

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The only man it seemed capable of saving him, was his one-time rival Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman.

But then US President Donald Trump gave Netanyahu an early Hanukkah gift: In a historic move, his administration reversed 41-years of US policy and decreed that Judea and Samaria settlements are "not inconsistent with international law."

It should be obvious by now that when it comes to Netanyahu, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving.

But the unexpected generosity of Trump's largesse is not the political boost it gave the prime minister, but how it unmasked Gantz for the feckless politician the Right purported him to be.

Monday night's news puts Gantz in a tough spot.

Like most Israeli politicians, he came out firmly in favor of the US decision.

"I applaud the US government for its important statement, once again demonstrating its firm stance with Israel and its commitment to the security of the Middle East," Gantz tweeted shortly after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo finished speaking.

In one tweet, Gantz effectively threw his potential coalition partners under the bus.

Slamming the announcement, Joint Arab List head Ayman Odeh decried the move saying, "No foreign minister will change the fact that the settlements were built on occupied land on which a sovereign Palestinian state will be established by Israel's side."

So how can he possibly agree to sit with Gantz now? He received enough flack for supporting a former IDF chief of staff, but now he would be sitting with a settlement apologist as well.

Now, Gantz's initial statement also said that "the fate of the settlements should be determined by agreements that meet security requirements and promote peace." But such a toothless remark is probably way too little and way too late.

Of course, stranger things have happened, and we don't know what kind of tricks Gantz and co. could have up their sleeves at the 11th hour.

But Gantz knows that he's running out of time and trying to play to all sides – as he's done throughout his entire campaign – is not proving to be a winning strategy.

It is reminiscent of the hit Broadway play Hamilton, where the title character feuds with his rival Vice President Aaron Burr who chooses to keep his cards close to his chest and not reveal where he stands on certain issues.

An incredulous Hamilton asks Burr, "If you stand for nothing what will you fall for?"

And that is the underlying question behind Gantz's candidacy. An "anything but Netanyahu" platform can only get one so far.

As for Trump, he has a knack of being generous at the most opportune times. After all, he recognized Israel's control over the Golan Heights a mere month before the April elections, showing that Netanyahu and Trump are often on the same page when it comes to Israel's diplomacy.

And, yet, despite the magnitude of this gift, it didn't seem to cost Trump very much. As former ambassador to the US Dan Shapiro noted on Twitter on Monday night, "Pompeo's announcement was largely symbolic, not legal."

Pompeo himself said that this decree doesn't express a specific view "on the legal status of any individual settlement," nor does it "address or prejudge the ultimate status of the West Bank."

For any solution between Israelis and Palestinians to bear fruit, negotiations must still take place.

But the optics of this grand gesture reveals one dramatic truth: Trump and Netanyahu see eye to eye.

And whether it be recognizing the Golan Heights, Jerusalem as Israel's capital or this latest bombshell, it is also clear that Trump's stance mirrors the consensus among the Israeli public.

And considering how often Netanyahu bumped heads with US President Barack Obama, having such a strong, robust friend in the White House could only be perceived as a political win for Netanyahu.

And although we are not quite in an election season yet – who knows if a third election will befall us – what helped Netanyahu with his base in April will most likely have the same effect again.

Trump has successfully torpedoed Netanyahu's nightmare scenario. No, not the minority government, but rather, the possibility that really keeps Netanyahu awake at night: him no longer being prime minister.

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