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Home Special Coverage 2020 Election

March 2 election unlikely to resolve political crisis, poll shows

Israel Hayom-i24NEWS survey projects Right-Haredim bloc will win 56 seats, gives the Left and Arab parties a combined 57 seats. This means Israel is very likely to have yet another deadlocked Knesset.

by  Mati Tuchfeld
Published on  02-21-2020 08:21
Last modified: 02-21-2020 09:25
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With elections less than two weeks away, a new Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll is projecting a deadlocked Knesset once again, potentially paving the way for another election several months down the road.

The new poll, conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute, shows that neither political bloc would be able to muster a majority in the 120-seat Knesset: The Right-Haredim bloc is projected to secure 56 seats, whereas the Left and Arab parties would have a combined 57 seats.

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A projection of seats in the March 2 election according to a new poll

MK Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu, which has refused to endorse any bloc but would support a national unity government, continues to hold the balance of power according to the poll, which has it at seven seats.

While the Left could theoretically swear in a minority government, it would have to rely on the Arab parties and Yisrael Beytenu to abstain when it presents it to the Knesset plenum for a confidence vote.

Blue and White, an alliance of center and left-wing parties that is expected to get the greatest share of the vote, has vowed to avoid any situation in which it would swear in a government that would rely on the Arab parties.

Blue and White Chairman Benny Gantz has previously been open to the idea of a unity government with Likud, but he has made it contingent on Likud leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stepping down in order to tend to his legal troubles. Netanyahu is standing trial in three cases, with the trial expected to drag on for at least a year.

Voter turnout could have a disproportionate outcome and could create major upsets, especially for the smaller parties. Some 62% of respondents said they were definitely going to vote on March 2, while an additional 24% said they were very likely to vote.

Some 71 % of Jews who define themselves as secular said they would go and vote, higher than those in the national-religious sector (61%) and traditional Jews (60%). Some 57% of Haredi voters, and 51% of Arab voters said the same.

The far-right Otzma Yehudit party, which failed to cross get enough votes in the September 2019 election, will most likely end up below the electoral threshold of four seats this time as well. The poll shows that it would garner only 1% of the vote, translating into zero Knesset seats.

Some 45% of respondents said Netanyahu is best suited for the role of prime minister, compared to 35% who chose Gantz.

The poll was conducted using a representative sample of 506 eligible voters in Israel. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

Tags: Benjamin NetanyahuBenny GantzElection 2020IsraelKnessetLikud

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