With Israelis heading to the polls for the unprecedented third time in less than one year, all eyes are on the "day after the elections." Polls have projected another political deadlock but is Israel really destined for a fourth election in September 2020? Here are the most likely scenarios for March 3:
A right-wing bloc victory: Likud, Shas, Yamina and United Torah Judaism. Following the previous election, this group comprised 55 mandates, but the election before that (in May 2019), it reached 60 mandates together with the Kulanu party. The task Netanyahu took upon himself will be tested Monday night when we learn whether his efforts in recent weeks were fruitful or not. In the case of 61 mandates for the factions comprising the right-wing bloc (their internal distribution is less relevant for all intents and purposes), Netanyahu will form a government and at a later stage, in the coming months, will try expanding his coalition. In this scenario, Benny Gantz will lead the Opposition and, amid efforts by the Likud to entice defectors, will have to try hard to preserve the integrity of his Blue and White party.
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The blocs remain deadlocked: The lack of a clear winner will lead to another election. This remains the likeliest outcome of this election. Based on the voting numbers from the previous two elections, and similar to the polls conducted over the past year, neither bloc, left or right, has the 61 mandates necessary for forming a government. Consequently, and also due to assessments that this time, too, the sides will hunker down and refuse to sit with one another in a unity government, we can expect a fourth consecutive election.
A minority government headed by Blue and White: Last time, Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beytenu party, together with a handful of Blue and White MKs, refused to form a minority government dependent on the Joint Arab List. This doesn't mean, however, despite the repeated assurances, that this won't happen now. Although both Gantz and Lieberman have vowed not to form a government supported by the Arab members of Knesset, others in the left-wing bloc, including some in Blue and White, aren't discarding the possibility. Just recently, Labor-Gesher-Meretz Chairman Amir Peretz said that a coalition of Blue and White, his faction and outside support from the Joint Arab List and Lieberman is definitely on the table.
A Likud government with defectors from the left-wing bloc: While this scenario is less plausible, it can't be completely discounted. If Netanyahu wins 60 seats or less for the right-wing bloc, he will seek to enlist as many MKs as possible from Blue and White and Yisrael Beytenu before surrendering his mandate from the president to form a government.
During the May 2019 election, Netanyahu made a last-ditch effort to enlist Labor, which was headed at the time by Avi Gabbay, into his coalition. Gabbay, however, decided at the last minute not to join and the Knesset was dispersed. Netanyahu will try it again this time around, in the case of another deadlock. With that, the law makes it hard to resign from a party and such a move entails sanctions on defecting MKs, such as revoking their ability to later run for Knesset on an existing party ticket. This could easily deter MKs from leaving Blue and White or Yisrael Beytenu for the coalition.
The right-wing bloc falls apart: This, too, is an exceedingly implausible scenario, but still must be considered. In the case of another tie, Gantz will try dismantling the right-wing bloc, which he failed to do the last time, by bringing one of the haredi parties or Yamina into his coalition.
The belief is that such a scenario is only possible if the right-wing bloc suffers an unexpected trouncing and loses mandates it currently has. In the last election, Netanyahu stopped the New Right from jumping ship by appointing Naftali Bennett defense minister. Now the thinking is that the right-wing bloc is more unified than before, such that dismantling it will be a far tougher task.
Mutiny within Likud: Another similarly unlikely scenario involves Likud MKs defecting to a Blue and White government. Benny Gantz says this is his preferred option considering the current state of affairs – a Blue and White-Likud government without Netanyahu. It appears, however, that much like the right-wing bloc the Likud is even more consolidated than before. Netanyahu's landslide victory over Sa'ar in the primaries is the main reason why.
