The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of the Iranian nuclear program, was a painful blow to Iran, and it remains to be seen what the regime's response to it will be. Most likely, the Quds Force, Iran's notorious extraterritorial black-ops arm will be ordered to carry out Tehran's revenge.
Over the weekend, Iranian protesters called for revenge against Israel, and state media was rife with threats from the country's leaders. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed Saturday that Iran will avenge its top scientist, but stopped short of naming Israel specifically.
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As the world's top state-sponsor of terrorism, the Islamic republic is not short on possibilities to exact revenge on its enemies.
One possibility is to target a high-profile Israeli asset abroad. Iranian officials have spoken out in the past about the idea to hit international targets that are affiliated with Israel.
In the past, Iran and Hezbollah carried out attacks against Israelis abroad, such as the attack at the Varna airport in Bulgaria in 2012 or the attack on the Israeli Embassy in Argentina in 1992. Such attacks allow Iran to maintain plausible deniability, thus reducing the chance of immediate Israeli military response.
On the other hand, if Iran can't claim responsibility for the attack, it means it also can't boast avenging Fakhrizadeh's death. Also, there are currently much less Israeli tourists abroad due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Another possibility is launching a missile strike against Israel.
After the assassination of Quds Force Commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani in January, Tehran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles on a US military base in Iraq. The Iranian operation failed to kill any American soldiers but one of the missiles accidentally downed a Ukrainian passenger plane, plunging Iran into an international scandal.
Nevertheless, the strike was a surprising military success. According to the US media, the Iranians were able to hit the unit responsible for Soleimani's assassination, destroy its command post, and damage the aircraft itself.
If Iran decides to fire missiles at Israel, it will probably do so from Syrian or Iraqi territory. Precision missiles are a new threat that Israel needs to learn to counter, as it is accustomed to dealing with rocket threats that lack the sophisticated means of navigation.
The disadvantage of such an action is that those who fire the missile will be exposed to immediate Israeli retaliation, as will any organization that will assist Iran. Also, there is a chance that at least some of the missiles will be intercepted by Israel's advanced Iron Dome or David's Sling air defense systems.
Tehran could have the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, its largest proxy in the region or pro-Iranian militias in Syria do its bidding, as it has in the past, and have them target Israeli soldiers on the northern border.
Targeting IDF soldiers would allow Iran to deal Israel a blow with minimal risk to its own assets, and the failure of such an operation will not undermine Iran's global standing.
On the other hand, if Iran decides to target IDF troops could give Israel cause for widespread retaliation against Hezbollah or the Iranian militias in Syria, which will further undercut the Iranians hold on the region, which is something Tehran seeks to avoid.
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