The government will convene on Wednesday to discuss the ongoing lockdown. The morbidity rate in Israel remains relatively high, even after a long lockdown, and the basic reproduction numbers aren't dropping enough. What, then, can the government still do?
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We took this question to public health experts and presented six possibilities: First, keep the lockdown in place; second, eradicate the virus by implementing the New Zealand model; third, reopen the economy based on the inoculation rate; fourth, open the economy in gradual steps; fifth, revisit the "traffic light" plan, and last, divide the country into so-called "green islands."
"It will not be possible to impose a lockdown here with a zero percent infection rate because Israel isn't even capable of enforcing the current lockdown," says Professor Ronit Calderon-Margalit from the School of Public Health at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. "This needs to be said because otherwise, the ministers will waste time. Even the traffic light plan at the moment, despite all its inherent wisdom, was never put into effect in Israel."
"On the other hand," says Calderon-Margalit, "it's clear the country can't be reopened at this time. Too many people are sick and there's too much infection. Taking this into account, it appears the central government is at a crossroads where it must delegate authority and responsibility to the local authorities and actually give municipal leaders the power and authority of enforcement. Such that every local authority will actually operate according to a logic approximating the traffic light system, but while enforcing violations."
Calderon-Margalit concludes: "This will make it possible to open schools… and decide what opens and what doesn't. The government's desire to control everything has simply failed. Furthermore, the government needs to start removing itself from the nearly 100% capacity it is currently working. The scope of the central government needs to be reduced to around 50%. Without including the municipal sector and without thinking outside the box, the situation won't change."
'Exit the lockdown while social distancing'
"The lockdown in Israel has exhausted itself, even if it made some sense initially," argues Prof. Orna Tal, deputy director of Shamir (Assaf Harofeh) Medical Center. "This isn't just about subgroups in Israel but society as a whole; people are tired and depleted and cannot continue with the lockdown policy. Therefore the lockdown needs to be exited while adhering to social distancing guidelines and enforcing them. In other words, allow gathering of up to 10 people, allow them to shop in stores in accordance with these guidelines and so forth."
"In addition," says Tal, "the vaccination policy needs to be enhanced. There's a stoppage in the rate of vaccinations in Israel and in my opinion this is partly because the public has lost faith in the vaccine or the system. A broad public relations campaign must be launched to persuade the public."
"The country needs to be reopened in a gradual manner, starting with the preschools and then move ahead from there," says Prof. Nadav Davidovitch, head of the School of Public Health at Ben-Gurion University and member of the advisory team to the government.
"Simultaneously, the vaccination program must be accelerated, mainly among at-risk groups that haven't vaccinated yet in the ultra-Orthodox and Arab sectors. We must create a process of multi-layered defense that includes observing all the rules of social distancing and practicing caution, together with accelerating the rate of testing in various areas and severing the chain of infection. In other words, we need to make the Israeli public internalize that the virus is here and we won't reach zero percent morbidity, and we must constantly act to stop and minimize its spread while cautiously reopening the country."
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