Iranian President Hassan Rouhani does not seem bewildered by the mechanisms behind the electoral process in Iran. Built on criteria that completely empty it of its content, it looks more like a bad mock election as defined by political systems around the world.
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But what really surprises Rouhani is the effect of these mechanisms and the great capacity of the regime's bodies to shut out and marginalize. The Guardian Council in the ayatollahs' system is the filter authorized to screen all candidates for elections, whether for the Shura Council, the presidency, or the Council of Experts.
The council was created to ensure that the ayatollahs keep their grip on all government institutions. They are trying to deceive the world into believing that they have a real competitive electoral system.
Here is what happened: This council disqualified all the so-called reformist movement's candidates. That is to say the one whose elements have different positions, opinions and orientations from those prevailing in the radical or conservative current ideology. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was incensed. He denounced the council's decision.
"This decision undermines the role of voters in democratic elections," he said. "Elections are an important event," he said in a statement. "It is not just about citizens going to the polls, as is the case with Shura elections. It is about choosing one of them to be the president of all the people and the representative of all."
This means that the Shura (parliament) elections, tasked with legislating in the game of role distribution the mullah regime plays well, are nothing more than a maneuver to export the image of the regime's popular support to the world. As Rouhani has acknowledged, it is about the presence of voters, not the electoral process and its outcome.
The important thing is that the Guardian Council has completely screened the candidate lists. It excluded more than 98% of those who ran. Only seven of the 529 candidates who submitted their applications were deemed "eligible." President Rouhani has unprecedentedly asked Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to review the decision of the Guardian Council.
This was unexpected, although some observers were fooled into speculation that the leader might comply with Rouhani's call. The Council would not have issued the final list of candidates for Iran's presidential election at this critical and sensitive stage in Iran's history, where the fate of the entire regime hangs in the balance, without referring to the leader.
The latter, despite the apparent formal conflicts between them, appoints the members of this council and exercises absolute control over all institutions. The sidelining of figures such as Ali Larijani, president of the Shura Council for 12 years, as well as former president Ahmadinejad, is not about their allegiance to the "revolution" and the principles set by its leader Khomeini.
But it is mostly about the man of the hour. The Guardian Council, a committee of jurists and clerics appointed by the leader for the purpose of ensuring the realization of the principles of the 1979 revolution, essentially implements the leader's policies and directives. It understands the need to make the electoral space fully open to the leader's favorite.
This was evident in the elimination of any candidate who could be a tough competitor for Ibrahim Raisi, the head of the judiciary, who previously ran and lost the 2017 elections against incumbent Hassan Rouhani.
The work of the Guardian Council speaks to a strong desire on Khamenei's part to choreograph the presidential election process with more precision than ever, ensuring that the favored candidate makes it to the presidency. All the more so since Raisi is expected to succeed Supreme Leader Khamenei.
He enjoys the confidence and support of the latter to the point of sidelining figures such as Isaac Jahangiri, Hassan Rouhani's vice-president, and Mostafa Tajzadeh, an official under former president Mohammad Khatami. These are affiliated with the so-called reformist movement.
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There could have been a strong mobilization of voters in their favor. The exclusion was therefore the only scenario that would have removed the specter of a defeat for the "leader's candidate."
The question now: will the leader's endeavors succeed in persuading voters to vote for a particular candidate, or will the ballot box bear another surprise for Khamenei despite all the maneuvering to marginalize the contenders and choose the least competitive.
