As Iran and world powers seem to move closer to renewing the nuclear deal, former Israeli senior intelligence officials have warned that the IDF must urgently begin preparations for a possible military confrontation vis-à-vis the Islamist Republic and its proxies.
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In an interview with Israel Hayom, former head of the Defense Ministry's Political-Military Affairs Bureau Amos Gilad and former national security adviser Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror said that efforts to prevent the nuclear agreement at this point will yield no result, and therefore Israel should prepare to protect itself.
"The Iranian threat is a major strategic threat to the State of Israel. It should be understood that this is not just a vision, but that the Iranians are investing enormous efforts into developing threatening capabilities. In Lebanon, according to foreign publications, they have 150,000 rockets aimed at Israel, as well as long-range missiles, cyber and terror capabilities, and above all – the fact that they are on the verge of going nuclear," Gilad said.
Amidror said, "This is a bad deal, and it is good that Israel has made it clear that it is not bound by it. The diplomatic options were exhausted after the Americans decided to pursue an agreement at almost any cost. I don't see any way that does not involve force to convince the Iranians, because Iran does not stop under any diplomatic or economic pressure. This requires us to ensure that we are prepared for a military option."
Gilad too believes that the emerging nuclear pact is bad, although he says that in the current situation, all options are equally bad.
"The question is whether to go with the US or criticize it. The US will decide whether to renew the agreement or not with or without us, and we have the ability to influence the matter. Theoretically, if we go against them, we will gain nothing. We must understand that we cannot attack Iran without coordination with the US for various reasons. That is why it is possible to have a sharp dialogue with the US, but not in a public way. We must strengthen the ties with the Western countries and the emerging ties with the Arab states. This is a force multiplier, but at the same time we must not fall into the illusion that there will be a regional NATO here."
He said, "If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, they will terrorize the entire Middle East, and the entire region could degenerate into a nuclear race. Our advantage is that we have the image of having strategic capabilities, and we could be seen in a completely different light in a nuclear Middle East."
According to Brig. Gen. (ret.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of the IDF Military Intelligence's Research Division, "although the US promised to use whatever means necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, at this stage it will no longer be able to prevent it as Iran is too close to the target.
Similarly, Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, former head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate's international and Iranian desks, believes that after restrictions on uranium enrichment expire, Iran will be able within a few years to take advantage of the knowledge and equipment it has gained to upgrade its ballistic missiles and develop a bomb in record time.
"Within a short time, the nuclear deal with lead to a significant strengthening of Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the subversive Shiite elements in the Gulf countries," he warned.
Yoel Guzansky, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said, "The emerging agreement is bad. At this point, I don't see an alternative in the form of military action. Israel wants, but it is not certain that it can, and the US can but does not want to.
"It's a question as to how much the US wants to act against Iran under the agreement, and not limit itself. Under [former US President Barack] Obama, Iran got a free 'pass' in the region, and I hope it won't be the same under [President Joe] Biden."
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