Israel has seen its overall strategic situation worsen over the past several months, the IDF Intelligence Directorate's Research Division warned in a recent memo sent to the top brass and the key decision-makers in the defense and political echelons, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
This assessment may have been what prompted Gallant to issue the strong warning just several days ago, which resulted in his firing (Netanyahu has since put his termination on hold). The memo states that Israel's dangerous strategic posture can be attributed to several factors, with the main one being the weakness Israel's enemies have sensed due to the internal chasm over the judicial reform legislation. This view of Israel is shared by all members of the anti-Israeli axis led by Iran, and it has been clearly manifested in the series of meetings held by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials aimed at coordinating their positions
Senior Iranian officials have held similar talks and it is likely that Iran has been pressuring the various members of the anti-Israeli axis to perpetrate attacks. This overall calculus is probably what led to the attempted cross-border attack from Lebanon several weeks ago, whose perpetrator was likely inspired by Hezbollah, as well as the increased effort to execute plots from Judea and Samaria – a theater considered by all the members of the axis as the archimedean point that could set the region ablaze.
Another reason for the perceived Israeli weakness is the daylight between Israel and the US. Iran is the main beneficiary of such a development because it believes that Israel will not be able to carry out an offensive against it or strike its nuclear program with US support. The Palestinian Authority has also been encouraged by the US-Israel friction and it hopes to seize on it, particularly in international forums – from UN committees to The Hague. Meanwhile, Israel's friends have expressed concern over the relations between Jerusalem and Washington. these countries mainly include Persian Gulf states but also Egypt, Jordan, and other regional players.
If in the past they moved closer to Israel because of its strong bond with the US and their realization that a deal with the Jewish state would also bring the US on board. The current rift between the two nations has pushed those same friends toward Iran. This has been evident in the restoration of full diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh (as well as Bahrain), but also in the warm welcome given to Iran's foreign minister when arrived in Cairo.
The immediate implication of the new situation is the erosion of Israeli deterrence, which would later also adversely affect the country's overall security and diplomatic strength both in regional terms and globally, the memo states. The fear is that Israel's strategic decline will be exacerbated as the ongoing upheaval intensifies at home and the processes threatening Israel from the outside accelerate.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
