Indications of the meticulous planning behind the surprise attack on the Gaza border communities are becoming clearer as time passes. The broad picture, even if late, should not soothe the politicians and military personnel but rather provide a clearer situation that would allow Israel to shift from defense to offense and prevent further loss of human lives in other areas. There is no room to persist with old misconceptions; our enemies on the borders are not deterred, and the Hamas attack, intentionally Iranian-driven, is necessarily part of a broader plan.
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Iran gave the command. This fact is already known to all and is responsible for over a thousand fatalities and thousands of wounded. According to intelligence sources, in Israel, it is already known that the signal for the Saturday morning attack was given secretly to preserve the element of surprise, but the planning took place over a period of about ten months in secret trilateral meetings in Beirut, involving members of Hamas, Hezbollah, and senior Iranians. Some of these meetings were even reported in the international media and in Israel but did not receive special attention.
The most recent reported meetings took place in Beirut, one in October, just six days before the deadly attack, and the other in early April. Iran's foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, arrived in Lebanon ten days before the attack for central meetings with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and also met with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, according to local reports. In the same closed-door meeting, it was reported that he approved "Tehran's commitment to the strategy of supporting and resisting the Palestinian people and the issue of liberating the land (Israel)." Another meeting took place in early April when leaders of the armed movements, Hezbollah and Hamas, met in Beirut to discuss the "resistance axis' readiness" against Israel.
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Israel, however, was mistaken in assuming that Hezbollah was still deterred and that Hamas sought to function as a legitimate governing entity, not as a terrorist organization. What do we know here? Since the beginning of the year, Israeli intelligence and the military have spoken about the "multi-theater combat" scenario, in which an attack would be carried out against Israel from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria simultaneously, possibly even involving Arab citizens of Israel. The scenario made headlines in April-May when the main concern was violent activity against Israel and a combined attack during Ramadan and around Jerusalem Day events. During these months, there were many attacks against Israelis, but the threat of the scenario becoming a reality never materialized.
Despite the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet's decisions regarding Hamas' capabilities, so far, the IDF has focused on aerial activity, while Hamas' military capabilities are deeply entrenched underground. As long as the capabilities of terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip are not eliminated, it seems that the residents there will not be able to return and live in security.
Now, after the tense week, all eyes are on Lebanon. The threats on the northern border are not what is currently preoccupying the fighters deployed along Israel's northern border, but rather Hezbollah's "Radwan Force." Israel has been closely monitoring that unit, whose mission in any hostility is to penetrate Israel and occupy territory in the Galilee. The Hamas "occupation plan" was designed to reach Ashdod; it was all but implemented last Saturday, and it could serve as a complementary element to Hezbollah's plans from the north. Israel will need to destroy the Radwan Force and not allow it to continue organizing on our northern border. We have seen how it ended in the south.
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