It appears as though as far as the US is concerned, time is running out for Israel to conclude Operation Swords of Iron, or at the very least, some restrictions are likely to be placed on Israel's ability to decisively defeat and subdue Hamas.
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Either way, the ticking clock of the upcoming 2024 presidential elections in the US and criticism within the Democratic Party from the Left Israel has dragged Israel into a possible election scenario as well. Leader of the Blue and White Party, Benny Gantz, upon his entry into the government, said that he will leave the wartime coalition at the end of the operation. Those around him say that this moment is approaching.
The conventional wisdom shared by several ministers in the War Cabinet is that the situation in Gaza could reach its climatic end as early as January because of the pressure from the United States in January, as the presidential election enters high gear. If Gantz leaves the government at that point, this will not lead to automatic early elections, since Netanyahu has 64 seats in the Knesset, and another four from the New Hope security members led by Gideon Sa'ar, who still view the end of combat operations far away. However, within the Coalition, the assessment is that two people will determine whether Israel enters another election campaign. Gantz will trigger it – and Netanyahu will decide the timing and place.
Labor Party leader Merav Michaeli, who announced she was stepping down and calling a leadership race, preempted her colleagues' efforts to unseat her, which would have come earlier had there not been a war. She is also the first to hint at elections.
If Gantz departs the government in January, elections could be held as soon as April or May. Alternatively, a vote on the 2024 budget in March could trigger summer elections. Both of these pitfalls are at Netanyahu's doorstep as he continues to seek the support of the ultra-Orthodox, and with Netanyahu allies Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir potentially not winning enough votes to pass the minimum threshold to have their parties enter the Knesset.
In light of this constellation, Netanyahu could decide to go into a snap election. This will also prevent the former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen from properly launching a bid. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is also waiting for the signal, does not threaten Netanyahu, as his potential voters are all currently with Gantz and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid.
Video: Weapons found at Shifa Hospital / Credit: X/@IDF
It appears that those in the center parties may also want to seize the momentum by calling elections. In the past week, signs have also increased that Gantz's partnership with Sa'ar is unraveling. The latter is taking steps back to the Right, by saying that he won't be resigning from the government anytime soon, while Gantz will have to reorganize the right-wing wing of his party to attract floating mandates from Likud, opening the door to new-old figures in the political system.
Netanyahu's nightmare scenario is going to elections while hundreds of thousands of IDF demobilized reservists are being demobilized home and demanding his resignation because the war goals had not been achieved as the people expected: a victory and the defeat of Hamas in the south alongside the removal of the threat from the north.
This will tempt Netanyahu to preempt such a scenario and call elections sooner than expected when the goals appear to have been attained. In January, the US president will enter his own campaign; Biden will not want the region ablaze at that time. In the spring, Netanyahu will enter the elections when the people demand a victory.
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