Just last week, Iran tried to send a message to the Middle East when the Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for long-range missile launches towards Syria, Iraq and Pakistan. It was a show of force, intended to hint to Israel and the US that Iran can act directly against them, not only through local terrorist organizations in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
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One of the targets was even defined as a "Mossad headquarters" in Erbil. The trigger was the deadly attack at a memorial service at the grave of former Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, after which the Iranians were quick to blame Israel and the US, even though the ISIS took responsibility.
This underscored Tehran's growing self-confidence in view of perceived American hesitation. Against the background of a series of attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen and the US redesignating the militia as a global terrorist organization, figures in the Biden administration still hope that they will stop the attacks in the Red Sea – and go back to fighting the civil war that devastated their country. But the Houthis depend on the Iranians for weapons and ammunition supplies, and without them their fate would be sealed. Therefore, they will continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden in order to harm Israel, as long as they are required to do so.
On the other hand, Iran's claim of responsiblity complicated things with its neighbors: In Iraq, it faced sharp criticism following the Erbil attack, which led to the deaths of a Kurdish businessman and his young daughter; Pakistan severed diplomatic ties with it for a few days and attacked its territory. In addition, the five senior Revolutionary Guards officers killed in Damascus this weekend, and their liaison in Lebanon who was killed in the Tyre area, paid the price for its provocations.
Video: Six facts about the Israel-Hamas war in 90 seconds / X/@idf
In the meantime, Iran's grand plan, which was exposed on October 7, is falling apart. Although Mohammed Def's call to Iran and Hezbollah to join the assault on Israel has gone unanswered, Tehran is doing everything it can to prevent Hamas from losing control of Gaza.
Hezbollah launched a limited war in the north, militias from Iraq were moved to Syria, and in Yemen they disrupted global shipping. And yet, Israel is systematically and persistently dismantling Hamas' military capabilities. Estimates are that 17 out of 24 battalions of the military wing have been significantly damaged, in addition to dozens of commanders assassinated in Gaza and rocket production infrastructures destroyed.
While Israel is in its fourth month of war, commentators and former IDF officers lament the "quagmire" in the Gaza Strip and the failure to achieve goals. A healthier look at reality should have us look at the fighting itself – which has not stopped despite all the prophecies of wrath regarding American pressure.
Hamas is losing more and more area, forces, and terror infrastructures. And even if the fighting method in the northern Strip has changed it is meant to adapt to the guerrilla warfare of the squads that still remain in the sector. In fact, after being defeated in most areas of the strip, Hamas turned Rafah, Deir al-Balah and the underground maze of Khan Yunis into its last strongholds.
Nevertheless, we must accept that Hamas is making an effort to shore up its military capabilities. In that sense, a game-changing move could be carried out if Israel managed to block the money trail used by the terrorist organization, which runs from Iran to senior officials of Hamas' political bureau living abroad.
Severing this link will neutralize a key motivation for recruits to Hamas so that the path to the collapse of Hamas does not only go through the Gaza Strip – but also through Iran, Qatar and Lebanon.
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