The escalation in the north continued Wednesday, with a direct hit on an IDF base that killed one female soldier and wounded eight, followed by a rather intense Israeli retaliation manifested in bombing several Hezbollah military targets in southern Lebanon. Lebanon reported several fatalities, adding to the more than 220 members of the terror organization killed so far in the battles.
Hassan Nasrallah apparently ordered the attack following the death of many of its operatives from Israeli strikes just before; this is also why he delivered a fiery speech the day before yesterday. Precision-guided munitions may have been used to avoid hitting civilians and to ensure a strike on the military target. This is part of Nasrallah's policy that he is careful to maintain even now, wherein he seeks to focus strikes on military installations and soldiers.
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Nasrallah made it clear in his speech that he will continue fighting as long as Israel fights in Gaza. He has been doing so since October 7, as part of the contribution of the axis of terror led by Iran. At the same time, he remains wary not to be dragged into an all-out war with Israel that would come at an inconvenient time for him and his Iranian benefactors.
Nasrallah fears not only severe damage to his organization but mainly harm like in Gaza to Lebanese cities and citizens, which would bring harsh internal criticism in his country. He understands that intentional strikes on Israeli civilian targets will necessarily lead to equivalent strikes on Lebanese targets, and he seeks to avoid that.
Video: Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
Hezbollah's policy is commensurate with Israel's tactical posture for now: It allows it to maintain Lebanon as a secondary arena and continue focusing efforts in Gaza to defeat Hamas and return the captives. However, the constant fear of escalation in the north requires the IDF to remain on constant high alert, which has immediate implications for the Gaza campaign as well.
The main damage caused to Israel is on the civilian side. Lebanon is paying a parallel price, with many villages in its south emptied of residents who have fled north, but that is little consolation. The fact that tens of thousands of Israelis have been living outside their homes for four months now – in addition to the damage to infrastructure, businesses, and agriculture – gives Hezbollah a significant achievement even without an all-out campaign.
Israel has already stressed that it would not return to the situation that existed on the northern border prior to Oct. 7. The stated goal is pushing Hezbollah's Radwan Force, its attacking organ, beyond the Litani River, and dismantling Hezbollah's capabilities in south Lebanon's villages.
It appears that despite the escalation of recent days, the chances of such an agreement remain higher than the chances of launching a broad campaign. As stated, Israel is interested in focusing on Gaza until Hamas is defeated and the captives are returned, and Hezbollah seeks to aid the Palestinian effort without paying a heavy price for it.
This allows both sides to continue skirmishing according to the current rules – soldiers yes, civilians no; south Lebanon and the upper and western Galilee yes, deeper Lebanon and Israel no – without deteriorating into more dangerous and less controlled territory. However, the longer the Gaza war lasts and things become more deadly, the sides may be tempted to up the ante – and things could get out of hand.
For now, risk management
IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, said Wednesday in his meeting with heads of local councils in the north that there is a need for patience if Israel were to achieve the goal of pushing Hezbollah away from the border fence and restoring quiet to the border, and that the path to get there may also go through an all-out war – for which the IDF is preparing.
At the same time, the IDF is also formulating a plan for a situation in which it would have to maintain activity and defense along the northern border in a way that would let residents return to their homes. Such a plan will include many changes in the order of battle and the nature of activity, compared to the situation before the war.
The main test of such an arrangement will not be at the moment of its signing, but the day after Hezbollah may agree to it to avoid war and allow south Lebanon's residents to return home, but experience teaches that upholding agreements is not its strong suit. It has brazenly violated UN Security Council resolution 1701, which prohibits its armament or presence in south Lebanon, with Israel barely lifting a finger.
Israel's current test will be preventing a similar situation in the future – that is, exacting a price from Hezbollah for every violation of an agreement, even at the cost of renewing limited fighting.
There is still ways to go before the two sides can enter an arrangement.
In any case, Hezbollah will not be able to sign as long as Israel is fighting intensely in Gaza, meaning that in the coming weeks (and possibly months) they will continue proceeding on the brink of war, which both seek to avoid.
This requires delicate steering and willingness to take risks, mainly to set limits to Hezbollah regarding the campaign's scope. Despite the heavy price paid Wednesday, Israel is succeeding at this so far in the north. But the main test – permanently removing the threat from the border – still lies ahead.
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