Iranian officials and state media outlets reported on Monday that President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative long considered a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed when the helicopter he was traveling in crashed in mountainous terrain near the Azerbaijan border. The charred remains of the helicopter that went down on Sunday carrying Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were discovered early Monday morning after search efforts overnight were hampered by blizzard conditions. Raisi's sudden death raised the question of what protocol is followed in a situation where a president dies in Iran.
Who will be president?
According to article 131 of the Islamic Republic's constitution, in case a president is incapacitated or dies in office, the first vice president – Mohammad Mokhber – takes over, with the confirmation of the supreme leader, who has the final say in all matters of state in Iran.
Will there be an election?
A council consisting of the first vice president, the speaker of parliament, and the head of the judiciary must arrange an election for a new president within a maximum period of 50 days. Ebrahim Raisi became Iran's president after winning the 2021 election, and based on the typical presidential term, another election was scheduled for 2025. However, given the constitutional procedures following a president's passing, the next presidential election in Iran can now be anticipated to occur by early July.
How will the transition affect Iran's relations with the West?
Iran's theocratic system of government means that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the supreme leader and all major decisions go through him, especially on national security and foreign affairs. This means that Iran's hostile relations with the US and Israel will likely remain unchanged. It also means that the talks over the nuclear program and the revival of the 2015 pact with the West are unlikely to resume anytime soon, at least not publicly. Ever since the collapse of the deal in 2018, Iran has marched forward with its nuclear program at a rapid pace, and according to some estimates, it could have amassed the necessary amount of highly enriched uranium for three bombs within several weeks if it decides to do so.
