In an exclusive report, NBC News has learned that top United States officials are growing increasingly concerned about the deepening military alliance between Russia and North Korea, fearing it could embolden Pyongyang to take provocative actions in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election – creating further instability after wars have erupted in Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas since President Biden took office.
Video: Reuters / Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives at the NATO summit in Vilnius
The Biden administration is already grappling with the fallout from the conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Now, according to multiple senior administration officials who spoke to NBC News, there are worries the burgeoning Russia-North Korea partnership could spark a new crisis on the Korean peninsula.
Russia has been providing North Korea with advanced military technology like ballistic missile components in exchange for artillery munitions sustaining Moscow's war in Ukraine, the officials said. They expressed particular concern about the possibility of Russia helping Pyongyang overcome final technical barriers to fielding a submarine capable of launching nuclear-armed missiles.
With Russian President Vladimir Putin expected to meet with Kim Jong Un soon, US intelligence believes the two allies may solidify new agreements escalating military cooperation. Some officials fear Putin could urge the North Korean leader to create an "October surprise" – provocative tests or actions aimed at disrupting the US presidential race, according to the report.
NBC News : "Russia and North Korea are preparing an 'October surprise' for the U.S. election, White House officials say. In particular, U.S. officials are preparing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military action in a decade ahead of the presidential… pic.twitter.com/CoauJRXXHS
— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) May 24, 2024
While acknowledging uncertainty around Moscow and Pyongyang's intentions, the administration is preparing contingencies should North Korea target the demilitarized zone with South Korea or conduct its seventh underground nuclear test. "We are going to be ready and prepared," one senior official affirmed to NBC News.
The deepening alliance marks a stark strategic shift. Historically, Russia worked with the US to constrain North Korea's nuclear ambitions through sanctions. Now, as one official bluntly stated, "This is an enormous shift," with Moscow shielding Pyongyang in exchange for military benefits as yet another global flashpoint potentially looms.
