Iran's potential retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh hinges on the outcome of Gaza ceasefire-hostage release negotiations, according to senior Iranian officials. The assassination, which occurred during Haniyeh's visit to Tehran, has heightened tensions in the region, with Iran vowing a severe response.
Three Iranian sources, speaking to Reuters anonymously, indicated that Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, would consider direct action if Gaza talks fail or if Israel is perceived to be prolonging negotiations. The timeline for such a response remains unspecified.
In response to the escalating situation, the US Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses. Simultaneously, Iran has engaged in diplomatic discussions with Western countries and the United States to calibrate its response.
The US ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington's efforts to encourage allies to help de-escalate tensions with Iran. Regional government sources described ongoing conversations aimed at avoiding escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire-hostage release talks, scheduled to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.
White House spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged the possibility of action by Iran or its proxies in the near future, potentially impacting the upcoming talks. In Israel, many anticipate an imminent response following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's statement vowing to "harshly punish" Israel for the strike.
Iran is reportedly considering sending a representative to participate indirectly in the ceasefire talks, marking a first since the Gaza conflict began. The move suggests Iran's readiness to play a more significant role in the peace process.
Sources close to Hezbollah indicated that while Iran would give negotiations a chance, it would not abandon its intentions to retaliate. A ceasefire in Gaza could provide Iran with the opportunity for a smaller, "symbolic" response.
The ongoing war in Gaza began on Oct. 7, when Hamas terrorists stormed Israeli towns bordering the strip, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians and taking over 240 hostage. Some 115 remain held captive by the terror organization, of whom 41 have been declared dead.
