There isn't a soul who doesn't want to see our hostages back home. For this reason, the negotiation teams leaving no stone unturned in their efforts to reach a deal with Hamas deserve immense appreciation for their dedication.
However, the Israeli public needs to understand that announcements of "cautious optimism regarding the possibility of progress toward a deal" do not in any way mean that an agreement is about to be signed. In truth, despite the progress made in Doha over the weekend, there are still many reasons to believe that a deal is less likely to be achieved.
Why? First and foremost, because the progress was made with mediators, not with Hamas directly. In other words, we still don't know how the psychopath hiding in the tunnels will react to what Qatar and Egypt have agreed to on his behalf. For instance, it's highly unlikely that he'll give up his demand for IDF forces to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rightly stands firm on this issue. It's incomprehensible how the rest of the defense establishment leaders – those responsible for the Oct. 7 catastrophe – are not insisting as he does, or even more strongly, on keeping IDF forces in this vital area as a non-negotiable condition. Every child understands that withdrawing from Philadelphi while Hamas is still functioning means reviving the monster. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, IDF intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, Shin Bet security service head Ronen Bar, and Mossad chief David Barnea should be the first to warn against this.
Philadelphi is not the only obstacle to a deal. Hamas has yet to agree to a mechanism for screening those returning to northern Gaza. Hamas Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar doesn't want screening so he can rebuild his military capabilities. This is precisely the kind of rebuilding that Israel cannot agree to. It's hard to see how these gaps will be bridged.
Moreover, there's disturbing uncertainty about the number of hostages who will actually be released. Unfortunately, a psychological warfare apparatus is being employed against the Israeli public, creating exaggerated expectations for the release of 33 hostages in the first phase. The reality is different. We're talking about 18 living hostages, and even that is not guaranteed. Each hostage is a world unto themselves, and each one who returns home is a victory. However, Israel must carefully consider the price it will be required to pay against the return we will receive. The question is: Will the Israeli public agree to such significant concessions for a number of hostages that may be smaller than expected, knowing that each life is priceless?
Netanyahu rightly insists that Israel will be able to resume fighting Hamas after exhausting the deal, and continues to demand a written American agreement to this principle. The prime minister is committed to the goal set by the government at the beginning of the war, which is the destruction of Hamas' military and civilian rule. However, stopping the war is exactly what the murderous organization is unwilling to accept, and there's another deep gap for you.
So for all these reasons and others, we must be very careful about nurturing the illusion that the deal is close. We've heard hundreds of times from the Americans, security officials, and various other players that "the deal is closer than ever." This might be true, but even if it's "closer than ever," the deal may still be far off.
What's certain is that a deal in the current contours follows the path of surrender that Hamas planned from the start. Sinwar ordered the kidnapping of our people on the morning of Oct. 7 to use them as bargaining chips to end the war. Instead of following the path that the mass murderer planned for us, Israel should have set the rules of the game itself.
