According to reporting by The Washington Post, Iran has faced a series of military setbacks in recent months, including the loss of key commanders and allies to Israeli strikes. This has led former US officials and analysts to worry that Iran's conventional losses could trigger a dash toward nuclear weapons capability.
Iran has been steadily advancing its nuclear program since 2018, when then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. Now, experts fear Tehran may increase its use of potential nuclear status as a deterrent against adversaries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stark warning after Iran's recent missile attack on Israel: "Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to retaliate against our enemies."
While Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the attack "extraordinary," he acknowledged recent losses, particularly praising the assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as a "brother" and "shining jewel of Lebanon."
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, told The Washington Post: "If the axis of resistance isn't working then the only deterrent might be a nuclear deterrent." He added that the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, combined with Iran's failure to inflict significant damage on Israel, means "there's a better chance Iran could decide to build nuclear weapons."
The losses to Hezbollah have been particularly devastating for Iran. Sina Azodi, an expert on Iran and lecturer at George Washington University, explained to The Washington Post: "When you think of a chess board, Hezbollah is Iran's queen. It's the most successful militia force that Iran created." The degradation of Hezbollah leaves Iran more exposed, as it "gives Israel more freedom of action in the region," Azodi added.
Iranian rhetoric around nuclear weapons has shifted noticeably since October 2023. While previously denying intentions to develop such weapons, officials have recently asserted that Tehran possesses the necessary capabilities but chooses not to pursue them.
A February report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence described the Iranian nuclear threat in starker terms compared to previous assessments. The report stated that while Iran does not appear to be actively developing a weapon, it has "undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so."
US officials confirm that Iran could potentially produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in as little as a few days, although additional time would be needed to develop a reliable nuclear warhead.
As tensions escalate, attention turns to potential Israeli retaliation for Iran's missile attack. Gregory Koblentz, an associate professor at George Mason University, told The Washington Post: "It is highly likely that this time Israelis will target Iranian nuclear facilities, especially if they believe Iran has already resumed nuclear weaponization work." Koblentz added that Israel's recent attacks against Hezbollah aimed, in part, to diminish the group's substantial arsenal of rockets and missiles, which were "widely seen as Iran's insurance policy against an Israeli attack on their nuclear facilities." He noted, "With Hezbollah functionally disarmed, for now, Israel has a window of opportunity to strike Iranian nuclear sites and a low risk of retaliation from Hezbollah."
However, experts caution that even a successful strike might only delay Iran's nuclear ambitions. A former White House adviser on nonproliferation, speaking anonymously to The Washington Post, warned that an attack on Iran's main enrichment facilities would "set back, not end the program" and could potentially lead to "a change in Iranian nuclear intentions — going from a covert threshold program to an overt weapons program."
