Let me share a tidbit in Persian – "An eqtesad ahmaqaneh ast." It's their way of saying, "It's the economy, stupid" – that game-changing phrase from Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential victory. Today, as we face off against Tehran, this economic weapon might just be the silver bullet we need – potentially powerful enough to bring down the Iranian regime with its toxic blend of Islamic extremism and state-sponsored terrorism.
Look, let's be realistic about Lebanon. We're heading toward another 1701-style arrangement, buttressed by international forces and a light Israeli footprint. And while eliminating Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar has shortened our path to some sort of arrangement in Gaza, let's not kid ourselves – any deal will have an expiration date. Why? Because Iran's fingerprints are all over virtually every terror group in the Middle East. Taking down Tehran's regime isn't just Israel's strategic imperative – it's crucial for the entire free world. And the path to victory? It runs straight through Iran's economic jugular.
I've spent years watching one particular economic indicator that tells us everything about Israel's security landscape and where we're headed. It's Iran's oil exports – a number that instantly telegraphs whether regional terror forces are about to bulk up or slim down. When global sanctions hit Iran's nuclear program, Hezbollah's allowance took a massive hit in the latter half of the previous decade. Then came the nuclear deal, unfrozen assets, and lighter sanctions – suddenly Tehran was raking in 50 billion USD annually from oil. No surprise that from 2016 onward, we saw Iranian proxies everywhere flexing their muscles: Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Yemen's Houthis, and Palestinian Islamist groups all grew fat on Tehran's petrodollars.
The landscape shifted dramatically after Trump torpedoed the nuclear deal and cranked up sanctions. Iran struggled to bankroll its military ambitions and proxy networks. But when the Democrats took Washington in 2020, the sanctions pressure eased considerably. This year, Iran's oil sales hit the stratosphere, pumping in around 50 billion USD, with China playing the role of eager – and nearly exclusive – customer, happily scooping up discounted Iranian crude. We at Israel Hayom covered this extensively, but last month brought a stunning reversal.
The US Treasury dropped a bombshell – fresh sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector, but with a twist. This time they went after maritime shipping companies that help Iran play hide-and-seek with its oil exports. The scheme was clever – mid-sea transfers from sanctioned Iranian tankers to "legitimate" vessels operated by these international firms, essentially laundering Tehran's black gold.
When these new sanctions hit maritime transporters – including Russian and Far East operators – the impact was immediate and dramatic. The numbers tell the story: Iranian exports to China plummeted from 4 billion USD in August to a mere 1.5 billion USD in September, with October projected to sink below the billion-dollar mark. Do the math - that's a 40 billion USD annual hit to Iran's economy. The implications are seismic. If this squeeze continues, Tehran might not just have to cut allowances to its terror proxies – it could face outright economic collapse.
Well-placed sources in both Jerusalem and Washington confirm this economic offensive was a carefully choreographed move. During high-level discussions, American officials laid out the data for their Israeli counterparts, making a compelling case that striking oil facilities would be overkill. Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia leading the chorus, amplified this message, pleading with Washington to keep Iranian oil infrastructure off the target list – they're terrified of Iranian retaliation against their own facilities. Jerusalem, by all accounts, saw the logic.
But here's where it gets messy. While tightening the economic noose, Washington simultaneously floated trial balloons about reviving nuclear deal talks. It's a resurrection of the Obama-era fantasy that diplomatic overtures could somehow pull Iran into the Western orbit and derail its nuclear ambitions. The timing is baffling, given Iran's deepening embrace of Russia and China. A US diplomat told Israel Hayom this is just one card in a larger deck of options, emphasizing it would be discarded if other strategies prove more effective. The Gulf states are watching this diplomatic dance with mounting anxiety. According to Al-Hurra, the American Arabic network, these countries are fully behind IDF operations in Lebanon, Iran, and Syria, and support a muscular Israeli response to Iranian aggression – just keep the oil facilities out of it.
Looming over everything is the upcoming US presidential election. Every move, every response – especially from Jerusalem – gets filtered through this political prism. With Obama-doctrine adherents holding key positions in the Democratic foreign policy establishment, many in both the Gulf and Israel are hungry for change. Yet the Republican alternative brings his own baggage – notably, his puzzling non-response to the Iranian-Houthi assault on Saudi oil facilities back in 2019.
